Shilo

FYI seems to be working ... except, that I think it's spelled "hello"

Thanks for all of the comments and thanks again for not dwelling on the "assumptions", as I said the assumptions are just a starting point and as Owen mentioned the numbers crunched out so that if there is an error in judgement then there is enough play (read: excess) to allow for a miscalulation. Some mentioned that I (we) should consider the issue of leaving the property to my love ones after I die... I guess that this is valid but for (in my case) two possible problems. First, I simply don't give much of a rats ass to what I leave behind. My parents left me some old photos and little else. To be honest, I had no problem with that. They worked hard all of there lives and had little left over at the end of each week to save. I learned from their mistake and have made sure that I save what I needed to allow me to retire. Hopefully, my kids have learned the same habit. And secondly, it has taken me hours on the computer, several trips, and a couple of years to start to get the feeling that I know a little about what I'm doing while in Thailand... I can't begin to think of what my son or daughter would have to deal with if I left then a condo in Pattaya as part of my legacy And I think Eneukman made an excellant point about the difference between getting repairs done on a rental vs on my own home... We all spend a fair amount of time trying to figure out a workable budget and to do so we have to research a little about the prices of condos or rental rates. But where do we start to a grip on all of the other issues that we will have to face... Consider: One day I decide that I have had enough of my current home and decide to sell my house and move to another part of the states. I've done it before... I once ended up in Southern Calif, sitting on the beach, with all of my belongings in the back of my car and some cash in the bank. Within a day or two, I had found an apartment (by looking in the paper), made a few calls to get the telephone, electric, cable turned on. A few trips around town and I had my drivers license changed, a new library card, a bank account, and a new insurance agent to cover my car and home, ... But from what little I have found on the subject over the web... I somehow don't see it being that easy in Pattaya. Maybe I'm wrong but at the very least there seems to be a crapload of paperwork to get anything done in Pattaya. And while here in the states everything seems to be cut and dry, I get the impression that in Pattaya part of getting things done in a matter of knowing if, when or how much to slip someone under the table. Don't get me wrong, I have every intention of one day calling Pattaya my home. But part of it's appeal is that going there can be an adventure. And living there will be a matter to managing the "learning curve". At the very least as some guys have suggested, it make sense to live there for a min of 6 months and I would argue 2 years before making a purchase of something as expensive as a home. .

I got to thinking about this and decided to put pen to paper and crunch the numbers. What I learned is that there seems to be a good case for not buying a Condo in Pattaya. I'd be interested in getting a few comments. Assumptions: My numbers are based on an exchange of 40 baht to the US dollar. Partly because that's been the average for the past several years even though it's somewhat lower at the moment. And it makes for easier math. A decent double unit will sell for about 3.6 million baht. The rent on a comparable property would be about 20K baht per month. The money that would be spent to buy the Condo could be invested with a 7% average annual return. And the tax rate on the invested money would be 15% (again, used this amount just to have a rate to work with). I didn't include inflation because as best I could tell there hasn't been a lot of inflation in the rental prices and becaused it's assumed that in a higher inflation period interest rates would rise to offset the higher prices and there would be more earnings on the invested dollars. Now I know that we can argue that these assumptions have weaknesses but I have to start somewhere and from what I can tell these assumptions are as good as any to work out the options. So we start with $90,000 (3.6 mill baht), invested it with a 7% return , pay the 15% tax, and start taking out $500 (20K baht) per month. Using one of my favorite web sites: http://www.fincalc.com/ and putting the numbers into the "How long will my money last" program, I learned that after 30 years I'd still have $36,500 of my orginal $90,000 left. Or in other words, I couldn't outlive the investment... So that leaves me with two options, pay the $90K for the property or invest it and rent a place for the rest of my life... Personally, I think that I would rather pay the rent. If I own the condo then I'm pretty much stuck in one place. Selling the property to move to another part of the city (or country) would mean having to put myself at the risk of the real estate market. While renting means that I could pack up and move on at a whim. Am I missing something here? .

I've said it before, and at the risk of sounding like a broken record, I'll keep on saying it again and again. The amount of money needed to live comfortably in Thailand is the same amount that it would take to "get by" back at home. I know that it's not what most guys want to hear but I believe that you have to have an exit stragey before making the big move. It's important to remember that LOS is a third world country (or at least second world, if there is such a thing) and there is no way of knowing that a move to Thailand will work out in the long run. I could waste a little time coming up with examples of things that could go wrong but it simplier to just say that it would be foolish to "burn your bridges". If you have enough to "get by" at home then it'll be enough to live happily in Thailand. But if you set your goal to have enough to "get by" in Thailand then you'll be screwed if your forced to return home. .

2 questions: What is meant by "double unit"... 2 bedrooms? And what is anyones best quess on the monthly rental rate for a simular condo? Thanks

My best arguement for asset allocation: It's common sence that 100% stocks in a bull market will make more money and 100% cash in a bear market will get you a gain and avoid the loss. But what most people don't seem to understand is that in a "choppy" market a balance mix will beat both the aggressive and convervative approches... A simple math exercise: You have a $100 investment and in one year it goes up 50%, at the end of the year you'll have $150. Now let's say that you leave it alone and the next year it drops 50%. You won't go back to $100.... you'll drop to $75. Or say you start with $100 but you pick the wrong investment and it drops 75% in the first year. You'll go from $100 to $25. But the next year, you don't need a 75% gain to get back to breakeven.... you'll need 400% to get back to your orginal $100. The moral: going down has a bigger impact on your portfolio then going up. So it begs the question... Why do investors spend ALL of their time trying to figure out how to make money and spend so little time looking for ways to limit their risk?

It must be true....great minds do tend to think alike. I'm sitting at 55% equities and 45% cash. But I only have about 30% in the US, 25% International, and I'm chosing to be in cash over bonds because of the flat yield curve. A money market yields you 4.57% while an Investment grade bond fund is 4.88% To much added risk for to little added yield in bonds. The 800 days referrence was something I caught on CNBC this past Friday. The longest period without a 10% correction was over 1000 days (can't remember the exact number) and I am sure it would have been in the late 90's, while the second longest period was 860 days. Bottom line.... we're overdue. I agree with you that asset allocation will save your ass more often then not. I tried to never make big bets on any ideas. But I'm not above doing a little timing and when I see the right opportunity I'll over weight. The next 20 or so weeks should be interesting. We are following a simular path to what happened in 1987. Interest rates were going up as were commodity prices (read inflation) and the market shrugged it's collective shoulders and marched on. It was like a rubber band that was pulled to tight and when it popped we had Black Monday of Oct '87. It's not quite the same this time around because interest rates have gone up from a much lower base but commodity prices are much much worst. I'm guessing that the market will "find" reasons to pull back between now and late fall. And a number of things are lining up to make for a strong year in 2007.

Owen, I tend to agree with about 90% of what you say but I think with the following: you're making a common error.... your numbers are based on the S&P 500 which many people use to "index" the market. I think a better index is the Wilshire 5000 which still gives an over weighting to the large caps but also captures the mid and small caps. If you buy in to the "4 year market cycle" then we are seeing a classic cycle. This theory says that the first year is the strongest, followed by a strong (yet weaker) second year, the third year is weaker yet and the fourth is a common year for a pullback setting up for another good year when the cycle begins again. In 2003 the Wilshire returned 31.24% (year 1), then in 2004 we got 12.11% (year 2), last year 2005 it was 6.42% (year 3) and this year started strong but the market ralley is getting "long in the tooth" (we haven't had a 10% correction in over 800 days (third longest period without a correction on record) and we are starting to see the market react. This year (to date) we are up 5.05% and starting to see the market react to the higher interest rates and commodity prices.... As you say, but no one has a crystal ball. but if the "4 year cycle theory" holds then we may see a correction over the next 2-3 quarters to set up what has a chance of being a strong 2007.

Actually, with the 2 million, you would find it very easy to retire and the penalty wouldn't be an issue. Just roll all of the funds into an ira and set up "substantially equal periodic payments". The down side is that once you start taking the payments you would have to keep taking them till you reached 59.5 But the upside is that with 2 mill you would get a monthly check of about $10,645 which is $127,740 a year US and a monthly budget in Pattaya of about 425K baht. I think most of us could get by on that.... PS: at the end of the process when you hit 59.5 you would still have about 1.6 mill in your IRA.... this assumes the IRS's current "reasonable" rate of return of 5.82%

There might be at least 2 or 3 other things to keep in mind before picking a new state home... How does the state choose their legal jury pools? I think that here in my current home state they pull for the voter registrations. It would suck to have to come "home" for jury duty and I don't think that it's a given that the court would give you a pass. How does the new state treat common law marriages? I know that this might be a long shot of turning into a problem, but what if you get a longterm live-in, bring her back to the states, things turn to crap and she ends up talking to the wrong lawyer.... And what happens when you die? What effect would your new "home" state have on your estate... Just a couple of thoughts.

WC, Just like the EPL, sometimes different teams play on different days. There was only one game on Thursday and the scores you see were for those guys who had players in that game. All hell will break loose tomorrow (Sunday) when the rest of the league starts their season (except for the last game of the 1st week which will be played on Monday night). By Tuesday morning we should know how everyone did. That is also when you'll have a chance to make any changes to your team. Actually, you have a pretty good set of picks for a rookie. Remember that in this league (unlike the EPL) there are no bonus points and you can make as many "transfers" as you like each week as long as you stay below the $50 mill limit. Just wondering, do they show many American football games in England? We get most of the EPL games over here in the States...

Ahh... but it's a new year, so we all start out tied for 1st I'll have to keep a closer eye on who is who this year, but I'll do my best to avoid a repeat of last year... Humm, I know it wasn't Winston (he has enough trouble with his own brand of football) and I know it wasn't Hammer (or I'd still be hearing about it).... Oh well, no problem, as I see it the only thing that is left unsettled is 2nd place Supreme commander of the as yet undefeated Prowlers, Shilo

Just bringing this thread back up to the top of the page.... 1st game of the new NFL season is this Thursday so if your interested in the Gridiron Challenge, there's still time to join Shilo

You can add me to the camp with the guys who will pick a bar that is showing the games. Hell, this morning I was even looking at the schedule and realized that I'll have to book my July trip next year to leave a day earlier so I'll be in Pattaya for the semi final games. But I'll try to be a little selective about which bar I choose to watch the game at. I go to bars to enjoy myself. Cold beers, warm girls, and a good game sounds like a great mixture. But if the other guys are more interested in causing a ruckus just for the sake of being an ass then I'll move on down the road.

I got the same error message....league full.

I had the same problem when I first started the league. Once you have signed up, select your team and then click on your current team name. There is an "edit" button where you can change it to whatever you want... That must have been what some of the guys in England did last year after they kicked the asses of us Yanks. Suddenly their team name changed to something like England 3 US 0 Ah, but it's a new year and we're all currently tied for first

Sorry guys, I just realized from a post on another board that the links I put in the orginal posts weren't working. I corrected the link and it should be good now. Shilo

OK Guys, Here's the deal. I have started a private league on the ESPN Gridiron Challenge and plan to post the info on several LOS boards including the FLB, Nanaplaza, Ajarn, OFB, and perhaps a few others. Anyone and everyone is welcome to join. We are just looking for guys you have a common interest in LOS and playing Fanasty Football. For those who don't know, the Gridiron works in a simular way to the EPL football system. You start with a bankroll of $50 million. You'll need to choose 2 QB's, 2 RB's, 2 WR's, 2 Kickers, and a defence while staying under budget. You can change (transfer) players as often as you like but the prices of the players move up and down (A LOT) based on their performance. And in American football you have to deal with BYE weeks where your player's team will have one week off during the season. This can be an issue because if you purchase a player at 5.4 mill and he goes up to 6.5 mill and then has a bye week, you either have to keep him and go with no points that week for his position or trade (transfer) him for someone at 5.4 who is going to be less productive... Again, EVERYONE FROM ANY AND ALL LOS RELATED BOARDS ARE WELCOME: To Join: http://games.espn.go.com/ffl/frontpage Look for the Gridiron Challenge icon on the right hand side. The Group name is LOS Gridiron Challenge The password is thailand The group ID is 16001 So here's the deal... One League All board members welcome With luck we'll get a huge turnout from all over the world. Good Luck, Shilo

Congrats Zaphodbeeblebrox It was kind of you to omit my team form the rankings you posted. No need to broadcast to the whole board that my beloved Prowlers are off to a miserable start and are currently sitting in 14th.... about 50 points behind you I don't think that the other fellas would get that bent to learn that I suggested that you consider your striker (one of the top 3 or 4 players in the world) for your captain instead of a middle of the road goalie... but what they would get pissed at is if they learn that your pronouncing his name as "Hen-rey" instead of "On-ray". Having your ass kicked in your favorite sport by a newbie Yank is bad enough but showing just how clueless you were a mere 3 weeks ago, might push them over the edge One last bit of advice...enjoy your current standing. It's a Looonnnggggg season and a lot will change over the course of the season Chris, I'll be staying at the Sabai again (as always) and I'll drop my 1000 baht off with Hammer. I saw a cutie in one of his pics that looks like she could use a drink or three. Of course, I still believe that I am just giving him a deposit to hold along with the rest of my winnings till the season is over

Isn't that how they award the EPL trophy at the end of the year? Works for me Shilo

Looks like we are going to have a VERY competitive league this year. Can't say that I'm happy with my start but there is still a chance that I might gain a little ground when the bonus points are given on Tuesday for this past weekends games. Suggestion for the other owners in the league: we'll want to keep this thread open so we can raze each other, claim our victories, and make excuses for our mistakes. And someone will always be putting in the names and scores so we can show the rest of the board how we're doing... if you don't want your name to show on the board, go to the EPL site, login to your team page, look in the bottom right corner for Admin "user profile" and click the link to get to the page to adjust your first and last name. Good luck to all Shilo's Prowler's Supreme Commander (currently, leading my troops to the end of the line )

Well, we're now into the first week of the season. We have had a chance to see our teams out there on the pitch. And we have also had a chance to see everyone else's team. Several of us have offered to back up our squads with a friendly wager of 1000 baht each to be held by Hammer and I guess there is still some question as to how we'll split the winnings. But I for one am having a hard time figuring out who is in the pool. In many cases the names in the league don't match our handles here on the board. So here is a simple thread to sign up for the pool. Simple really, just list your EPL teams name. Naturally, your handle will be here on your post. I'm guessing that we have about 6-8 brave souls who have said they are in out of a total of 19 teams. So I'll start: Shilo's Prowlers

zaphodbeeblebrox If ever a guy was crying out for a "nickname" this is a prime example. Buddy, either you pick it or over time one of us will do it for you What's it going to be: zap, beeble, brox, or might I suggest Bud Welcome to the league and thanks for the extra 1000. Go to the link that "templekid" posted and just sign up. You can pick your own team or let the computer do it for you. Hint: in the transfer section use the sort drop down box and select "Teams selected by %". This will show you who most of the 366,000 other owners picked for their teams. It's handy for a newbie who doesn't know much about the players. Naturally, the players with a high % and a high price tag are the quality while the ones with high % but low price tags are generally "fillers". Good luck, Shilo

So Ben, are you the new team I see in the league? Walking St Rovers If so, then it's going to be a real pleasure to have a chance to kick you butt this season Welcome buddy, it's about time that we added a (very) little class to this league That's another 1000 baht in the kitty.... any more takers? Shilo

Well, with just 3 1/2 days (actually 86 hours as of this post) before the kick off of the first game.... can you tell I'm ready for some damn football ... We now have an even "dirty" dozen signed up in the league. A 1000 baht bet? Sure, I'm game. I suggest that we ask Hammer if he is willing to hold the bets for us and we can each give him our share on our next visit. If I'm reading the thread right, I think Barrington, Pieman, W. Churchboy, and me are looking to start the pool. Let's see if anyone else has a little faith in their teams Shilo