Some good news on the Dollar to Baht Rate

[Shilo 371]

Well another trip is coming up, so naturely, I start to pay alot more attention to the dollar to baht exchange rate. I can't help but to stop in my tracks and read when I come across a headline like

 

Baht at six-year high and rising

 

http://www.bangkokpost.com/breaking_news/b...s.php?id=113805

 

 

The baht is very strong but as anyone who watches the markets knows... it is hard (some would say impossible) to time the stock markets... it's even harder to time the bond market or predict interest rate moves.... and the hardest of all is timing the currency markets.

 

But you can learn a lot by stepping back and looking at the history of the movements. So here is a little graph that I like to post from time to time to add perspective.

 

 

I'm not much for "reading" graphs but it sure looks like the baht has been gaining strength for the past several years. It's hard to say if it's percieved strengh in the Thai economy, weakness in the US, or a combination of both. But what is clear is that the international market have given a seal of approval for the recent coup.

 

Oh well, I promised a little good news for the dollar exchange rate (well sort of). There is a website that is perfect for financial nerds like myself. economagic.com

 

Try this out: click

 

http://www.economagic.com/em-cgi/start4cas...hus&freq=12

 

 

scroll to the middle of the page and look for a button "Forecast Now" click again.

 

 

What you have are quarterly baht exchange rates going back to the beginning of 1990 but more interesting... the websites projections through 2014. Now reading the table might be a little bit of a challenage because you have to sign up for their service to see all of the numbers. But try this, try to look at the numbers 3 rows at a time. It isn't hard to fill in most of the ?'s with actual numbers.

 

The good news They project that in the first three quarters of 2014 the baht will exchange between 52-55 per dollar

 

 

three more weeks till wheels up,

 

 

Shilo

[BenMajor 0]

Nicely done. Thanks. Something to look forward to in my retirement. ;-)

[joes3175 0]

The good news They project that in the first three quarters of 2014 the baht will exchange between 52-55 per dollar

 

 

three more weeks till wheels up,

 

I wouldnt put my money on this! The Hungarian George Szoros is old now (about 75y) and last time he punished the SE Asian currency market when dumbo Mahartir (president of Malaysia that time) made Mr Szoros very upset. Single handedly punished the Thai, Indonesian,Malay, and Filipino currencies.

[picoman 1]

Should I cancel my trips next week and F-E-B-R-U-A-R-Y in order to take advantage of the upcoming rise in the USD ???

 

Edited October 27, 2006 by picoman

[ginseng 0]

I would love this to be true but I doubt it will be. The US economy is likely to weaken not strengthen, given the implosion of the housing market and nothing else to really prop it up anymore. The Thai economy is likely to strengthen as is the whole of Asia relative to the USA as they gain investment interest. Check out the Thai fund TTF, since the coup it's been rising and rising, smart money is pouring into Thailand and any dumb shit you see on O'Reily or about the US imposing sanctions is pure smokescreen. There were historic precedents not likely to be repeated in our lifetimes that caused the big spike seen in the chart. I could see the dollar falling to the low 30s and staying there for a long time.

Edited October 27, 2006 by ginseng

[Braveheart 0]

Any long term projection on money markets that go out this far are bound to fail. It is virtually impossible to predict what the world financial and political situation will be that far in advance with any degree of accuracy or certainty.

[Saddic 31]

Thanks but...

 

I've been here for 3 weeks and has been falling every day.. as of today... it's flirting with the 37 bhat/$ boundry

 

[jacko 8,776]

Thanks but...

 

I've been here for 3 weeks and has been falling every day.. as of today... it's flirting with the 37 bhat/$ boundry

 

 

Well as of today......same date....??? . I can only hope the UK puts up interest rates further.

Edited October 27, 2006 by jacko

[ginseng 0]

Why is the USD a TOTAL POS!

[Owen` 2]

In general, folks, no one knows what any currency fluctuation is going to do. If they did know, they would be worth billions and would not be on this board.

 

Explaining what happened and why is how people get dubbed expert. Explaining what happened and why has more or less no value.

 

If you accept that no one knows which direction various currencies will fluctuate, you will not spend time trying to analyze it. The real problem with this issue is that there are guys who will spend a few hours on it, make a prediction, and be right.

 

Then they'll do it again, and be right again. Then they think they really do know what they're doing.

 

They don't. No one does. Sample size < 10 is inconclusive.

[Saddic 31]

Damn...

 

36.39 bhat/$ today

 

[jacko 8,776]

36.83 on Bloomsberg this AM....

[btm1735 232]

Thai Baht to the USD is not as relevent as the Yaun to the USD. Or more to the point, how many dollars the Chinese are willing to buy. The Chinese want to keep the USD strong so keep their exports strong but they are getting wary of having so many of their massive reserves in one place. If you want a hedge, you can't buy the Yaun as an investment because of the way the Chinese manage it. You can how ever bet on raw materials and technogly that China will buy with their reserves. I made 4% the last quarter (12% annual rate) using this as basic logic in selecting my funds. Just looked at international funds that benefit from Chinese sucess.