exchange rates (again)

[joekicker 53]

I can only sat that the ex rare is now almost a full baht more per pound since I came to LOS on the 23rd of april.The ex rate is ( I just found out, Do I feel stupid)different in different banks and can be as much as a quarter of a baht more in banks in ther same soi. It pays to shop around as even on a modest ammount of pounds yo can get a little more baht for your money

 

If you stop using banks and go to money changers you will do even better.

[hybrid 1]

If you stop using banks and go to money changers you will do even better.

 

where would one find a money changer who would give a good rate for £50,000

 

and are they in offices, or a back just don't want to get mugged lol

 

i was told the once back when it was 69.5/£ that there was a gold shop paying 71/£

i did not go as i was worried about forged thai money and safety, and also the legality of not using a side street changer

[joekicker 53]

Pretty well any decent money changer has a sign advertising it. A lot of jewellery shops are... there's no rule who might be a money changer, really.

 

Money changers are licensed and there way, way more of them than banks. Never heard of getting cheated, ever - repeat, never HEARD of it. I would never use a bank to change money, and have found them universally reliable up and down the country.

 

Of course beware of the ones in hotels and tourist-infested malls, where you probably will get LESS than a bank. But out on the street they're very good. Shop, check the bank rate to be sure you're getting better.

[Chivas 0]

Try using the money changer on 2nd floor of Tops-Up to couple months previous didnt realise he was even there.

If you check the Bank of Asia rate on the ground floor for reference and then wander upstairs I found that consistently he was 30 satang better.

 

Asked him if deals were negotiable on rate and surprised at his response which was "course they are" in a manner that suggested I was wet in the head for possibly thinking otherwise.

 

£500 was minimum for upgrading of rate and more you exchange etc etc.

 

They maintain a "book" on display whereby potential customers are offering THEM baht and what approximate amount in sterling/euros etc they would like in return.

 

Its full of entries.

 

Would suggest that if you walk in with 50k sterling youll get your arm bitten off for it with a mega rate.

Suggest also you have some trusted muscle with you !!

 

Chivas

[redwood13 56]

Bank Gold on Soi Rungland is a gold shop money changer with lots of mentions on the various boards.

I've used Yenjit money changer on Walking St. beyond the FLB - but before Simon beer bars.

 

-redwood

[hybrid 1]

might be worth waiting to change it !!

 

Baht to become more volatile in this year

source: Bkk Post May 19 2008

 

Imports expected to weaken unit in 2008

 

Businesses will experience a more volatile baht in 2008 as high imports have caused it to weaken, but inflows could pick up later in the year. This is a different scenario from 2007, when the baht mostly strengthened throughout the year, according to analysts.

 

The baht has gained ground since the beginning of the year from 33.6 to 31.5 to a dollar at the end of April, and it started to weaken in early May to 32.25 last Friday.

 

Frederick Neumann, HSBC's regional foreign-exchange strategist, said the baht was expected to weaken continuously for many months as investors were selling off regional currencies in light of a short-term rebound in the dollar.

 

Increasing imports over the past few months have begun to narrow Thailand's trade deficit and increase downward pressure on the baht, he said.

 

The economy ran a $109-million trade deficit caused by $41.49 billion in imports and $41.38 billion in exports in April. A lower trade surplus this year is likely given high oil prices.

 

''Regional currencies and the baht have been sold off. But the baht has underperformed other currencies such as the Philippine peso and Indonesian rupiah last week. We expect the baht to depreciate much more,'' Mr Neumann said.

 

However, the current account surplus due to strong tourism will prop up the baht.

 

Meanwhile, the Bank of Thailand will probably increase its policy benchmark interest rate from 3.25% by 50 basis points this year to increase capital inflows now that the benchmark US Federal funds rate stands at 2%.

 

''Toward the end of the year, the baht should be slightly stronger than this. The BoT is expected to raise interest rates because inflation is very high. Historically, a high interest rate in Thailand will bring more capital inflows,'' he said.

 

''We expect the dollar to continue to appreciate and the baht and currencies in the rest of the region to depreciate. Our existing forecast of 29.50 baht to a dollar for the end of the year is somewhat too aggressive.''

 

Nattawut Sachabudhawong, Siam Commercial Bank's senior financial economist, said the baht was now more susceptible to volatility in the event of major transactions as existing buying and selling demand were on par.

 

In any case, the baht should weaken over the next few months and could rebound later in the year because of service income, foreign portfolio inflows and foreign direct investment.

 

''There is a high chance for the baht to be more volatile over the next few months because the market's flow is currently quite neutral. We have recommended our clients to increase hedges,'' Mr Nattawut said.

 

The baht could weaken shortly because importers' dollar purchases typically increase in the second and third quarters, during which exports usually slow down. But healthy inflows and and a stronger Chinese yuan will support the baht.

 

Mr Nattawut said SCB forecast the baht to stand at 31 to a dollar at the end of the last year, on par with the year's record low seen last March.

 

The Bank of Thailand, meanwhile, could be cautious in raising interest rates, despite inflation concerns, because domestic consumption and private investment remain fragile. Domestic consumption is quite worrisome because wages increases were not keeping pace with inflation, he said.

 

Usara Wilaipich, senior economist with Standard Chartered Bank, said that investors reduced long positions on regional currencies after a rebound in sentiment of the dollar, which caused regional currencies to weaken.

 

''We expected the baht depreciation to gain momentum. One reason was that exporters had sold dollar contracts since the beginning of the year and it was outstripped by importer demand for dollars,'' she said.

 

The chance of the baht reaching 33 to a dollar over the next two to three months is fairly high, she believes.

[joekicker 53]

The chance of the baht reaching 33 to a dollar over the next two to three months is fairly high, she believes.

 

What a bummer. The newspaper had to cut off the story JUST as she was going to explain how much of her personal gelt she has put into this prediction.

 

Too bad. I really would like to know if she is betting her house, car, bank account.... what?

[bigdelta 46]

might be worth waiting to change it !!

 

Baht to become more volatile in this year

source: Bkk Post May 19 2008

 

Imports expected to weaken unit in 2008

 

Businesses will experience a more volatile baht in 2008 as high imports have caused it to weaken, but inflows could pick up later in the year. This is a different scenario from 2007, when the baht mostly strengthened throughout the year, according to analysts.

 

The baht has gained ground since the beginning of the year from 33.6 to 31.5 to a dollar at the end of April, and it started to weaken in early May to 32.25 last Friday.

 

Frederick Neumann, HSBC's regional foreign-exchange strategist, said the baht was expected to weaken continuously for many months as investors were selling off regional currencies in light of a short-term rebound in the dollar.

 

Increasing imports over the past few months have begun to narrow Thailand's trade deficit and increase downward pressure on the baht, he said.

 

The economy ran a $109-million trade deficit caused by $41.49 billion in imports and $41.38 billion in exports in April. A lower trade surplus this year is likely given high oil prices.

 

''Regional currencies and the baht have been sold off. But the baht has underperformed other currencies such as the Philippine peso and Indonesian rupiah last week. We expect the baht to depreciate much more,'' Mr Neumann said.

 

However, the current account surplus due to strong tourism will prop up the baht.

 

Meanwhile, the Bank of Thailand will probably increase its policy benchmark interest rate from 3.25% by 50 basis points this year to increase capital inflows now that the benchmark US Federal funds rate stands at 2%.

 

''Toward the end of the year, the baht should be slightly stronger than this. The BoT is expected to raise interest rates because inflation is very high. Historically, a high interest rate in Thailand will bring more capital inflows,'' he said.

 

''We expect the dollar to continue to appreciate and the baht and currencies in the rest of the region to depreciate. Our existing forecast of 29.50 baht to a dollar for the end of the year is somewhat too aggressive.''

 

Nattawut Sachabudhawong, Siam Commercial Bank's senior financial economist, said the baht was now more susceptible to volatility in the event of major transactions as existing buying and selling demand were on par.

 

In any case, the baht should weaken over the next few months and could rebound later in the year because of service income, foreign portfolio inflows and foreign direct investment.

 

''There is a high chance for the baht to be more volatile over the next few months because the market's flow is currently quite neutral. We have recommended our clients to increase hedges,'' Mr Nattawut said.

 

The baht could weaken shortly because importers' dollar purchases typically increase in the second and third quarters, during which exports usually slow down. But healthy inflows and and a stronger Chinese yuan will support the baht.

 

Mr Nattawut said SCB forecast the baht to stand at 31 to a dollar at the end of the last year, on par with the year's record low seen last March.

 

The Bank of Thailand, meanwhile, could be cautious in raising interest rates, despite inflation concerns, because domestic consumption and private investment remain fragile. Domestic consumption is quite worrisome because wages increases were not keeping pace with inflation, he said.

 

Usara Wilaipich, senior economist with Standard Chartered Bank, said that investors reduced long positions on regional currencies after a rebound in sentiment of the dollar, which caused regional currencies to weaken.

 

''We expected the baht depreciation to gain momentum. One reason was that exporters had sold dollar contracts since the beginning of the year and it was outstripped by importer demand for dollars,'' she said.

 

The chance of the baht reaching 33 to a dollar over the next two to three months is fairly high, she believes.

 

"Increasing imports over the past few months have begun to narrow Thailand's trade deficit and increase downward pressure on the baht, he said".

 

Would not "increasing" imports widen a trade deficit instead of narrow a trade deficit? Is the expert right here or am I not understanding the concept?

Or does Thailand have a trade surplus and she is tkinking the opposite?

Edited May 21, 2008 by LTGTR

[joekicker 53]

Yeah, overall generally Thailand has a trade surplus. She expects more imports will increase the demand for dollars to buy them, making the baht worth less. The reason for the rise in the baht lately was (partly) because the country was swimming in dollars - simple supply and demand.

 

I don't agree much with her, for what that is worth. The reason Thailand had so many dollars last year and early this year was because of investment, mostly stock market, mostly speculative "hot money" - and not trade per se. It still has a lot of that, too. AND of course if she is worried that Thailand is not importing enough, just check the oil bill this month.

 

Economists are different from you and me. But what she is saying is logical in a sense that a fellow economist would cream for her.

 

I'm no economist and you can fill a lot of texbooks with what I don't know but at least I'm smart enough I don't have to go to work every single bloody boring day in a BANK to feed my family ferpetesake!

[bigdelta 46]

Yeah, overall generally Thailand has a trade surplus. She expects more imports will increase the demand for dollars to buy them, making the baht worth less. The reason for the rise in the baht lately was (partly) because the country was swimming in dollars - simple supply and demand.

 

I don't agree much with her, for what that is worth. The reason Thailand had so many dollars last year and early this year was because of investment, mostly stock market, mostly speculative "hot money" - and not trade per se. It still has a lot of that, too. AND of course if she is worried that Thailand is not importing enough, just check the oil bill this month.

 

Economists are different from you and me. But what she is saying is logical in a sense that a fellow economist would cream for her.

 

I'm no economist and you can fill a lot of texbooks with what I don't know but at least I'm smart enough I don't have to go to work every single bloody boring day in a BANK to feed my family ferpetesake!

 

I was referring to her quote regarding the trade deficit,not it's effect on the baht.She got it backwards.

Regardless,I just want to have the dollar vs. (insert any currency here) to stabilize so I can stretch my pension for more enjoyment when I move next spring.

Edited May 22, 2008 by LTGTR

[joekicker 53]

Regardless,I just want to have the dollar vs. (insert any currency here) to stabilize so I can stretch my pension for more enjoyment when I move next spring.

 

Ah, yes, the wonderful pre-Jimmy Carter days. Weren't they great?

 

"Return with us now to those thrilling days of yesteryear..."

[bigdelta 46]

Ah, yes, the wonderful pre-Jimmy Carter days. Weren't they great?

 

"Return with us now to those thrilling days of yesteryear..."

That old peanut farmer and his brother's Billy Beer!

[joekicker 53]

That old peanut farmer and his brother's Billy Beer!

 

Ruined the world of currency stabilisation, they did!! Well, anyhow, started it down the wrong road, Mr Nixon actually doing more to de-stabilise the dollar and world currencies than anyone.

 

I just don't think that you and I are going to see stabile currencies again.

[hybrid 1]

Ruined the world of currency stabilisation, they did!! Well, anyhow, started it down the wrong road, Mr Nixon actually doing more to de-stabilise the dollar and world currencies than anyone.

 

I just don't think that you and I are going to see stabile currencies again.

 

if 35bht/$ days please !!!

[bigdelta 46]

Ruined the world of currency stabilisation, they did!! Well, anyhow, started it down the wrong road, Mr Nixon actually doing more to de-stabilise the dollar and world currencies than anyone.

 

I just don't think that you and I are going to see stabile currencies again.

Way too many variables today to see stable currencies again.

[joekicker 53]

!!! bring back the hectic >35bht/$ days please !!!

 

Was there something wrong with >45 baht that you didn't like?

[jacko 8,813]

Was there something wrong with >45 baht that you didn't like?

Perhaps the fact that it didn't last.