US dollar exchange forecast

[Sailfast 503]

Headed Thailand at the end of February and staying for about five weeks. wiring most of my budget to my bank account in Thailand. Any educated guesses as to what the baht will do over the next 6-7 weeks?

[Greg_B 306]

News reports have been the if the Yellow continue, so will the Baht decline

 

You could do 33% now and see what happens in 2 weeks

[fasterfreddy 3]

Because of the tapering by the feds and the political issues in Thailand, my guess is that the dollar will get a bit stronger against the baht .

[SlipSlopSlap 186]

Paper said today that baht is at 3 year low. I can't see it going up until after the election, at least.

[Gus 97]

But is the election going ahead?

 

12 months ago the GBP was around 47thb now it is around 53thb, as the actress said to the Bishop, "Every little bit helps" or similar. :)

[CheshireTom 1,377]

News reports have been the if the Yellow continue, so will the Baht decline

 

You could do 33% now and see what happens in 2 weeks

 

The "Yellows" have morphed, quite appropriately, into the Blackshirts.

[Patna 3,802]

There are horror stories about the financial balloon in Thailand, the same way people are waiting for the dollar to collapse the last few years, I don't believe either will happen but anyone in the know would be a very rich man. Nobody really knows of course but most agree that the Thai baht will continue to decline against the dollar all the way through next year. I don't have much money but the few dollars I have in the bank will not be exchanged for the moment, only on an 'as needed' base.

[CheshireTom 1,377]

I'm not a "financial" guy, but have read more than a few credible reports over the last 6 months or so that question the basic fundamentals of the Thai economy, but none that have expressed the opinion that all is well (except from a few Thai sources). I don't understand the numbers, so just have to go on my gut instinct ... i.e. where is the funding coming from that is fuelling all the rampant consumerism I see everywhere.

[Greg_B 306]

I'm not a "financial" guy, but have read more than a few credible reports over the last 6 months or so that question the basic fundamentals of the Thai economy, but none that have expressed the opinion that all is well (except from a few Thai sources). I don't understand the numbers, so just have to go on my gut instinct ... i.e. where is the funding coming from that is fuelling all the rampant consumerism I see everywhere.

Most of are not financial wizards, but with the election issues, the rice price debacle and the get a new vehicle program, it could be a disaster for Thailand. The rice price debacle is worth reading about, it seems they can't find the extra Baht to give to the farmers as promised.

 

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/685387-panel-formed-to-probe-packed-thai-rice-corruption/

 

 

I know of some that are buying new vehicles for the first time and are way over there heads on it, but they feel it is a good deal.

It's only a good deal if you can make the monthly payments.

 

http://www.aljazeera.com/video/asia/2013/10/a-taxing-problem-for-thailand-car-industry-20131058135811505.html

 

http://the-japan-news.com/news/article/0000892825

[jacko 8,822]

The Al Jazeera link interested me, as I might be in the market for a near new vehicle soon.

But it said.....

10 percent of the people on the scheme are defaulting on loans and selling their cars.

 

I thought that those who had bought under the rebate scheme were not allowed to sell their vehicles for a period.

Or are they free to do so once the rebate was received?

 

Anyhow, I also feel the baht will fall a little more and will wait until the New Year to send over a chunk of beer tokens.

I do have a little concern over US$ strength though, with the upcoming appointment of Janet Yellen and listening to Wac too much!

[CheshireTom 1,377]

Most of are not financial wizards, but with the election issues, the rice price debacle and the get a new vehicle program, it could be a disaster for Thailand. The rice price debacle is worth reading about, it seems they can't find the extra Baht to give to the farmers as promised.

 

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/685387-panel-formed-to-probe-packed-thai-rice-corruption/

 

 

I know of some that are buying new vehicles for the first time and are way over there heads on it, but they feel it is a good deal.

It's only a good deal if you can make the monthly payments.

 

http://www.aljazeera.com/video/asia/2013/10/a-taxing-problem-for-thailand-car-industry-20131058135811505.html

 

http://the-japan-news.com/news/article/0000892825

 

Yes, Greg, I'm aware of all these things. What I don't understand is the exact correlation between the market price of rice in Udon Thani and how many Baht I get to the UKP. I would guess that borrowing a couple of trillion to build a railway isn't, on the face of it, a very good idea either, but lots of financial commentators seem to think otherwise. I don't really understand the 'why' bit.

 

What I did witness was an ice-skating rink in Hat Yai that charges 250 Baht an hour absolutely packed out and long queues outside ... I wonder where they get the money for that - that's before observing that the busiest shops always seem to be those selling smartphones - to folk that otherwise plead poverty. I don't 'get' the algorithms involved, but my gut instinct says too much easy credit isn't really a good thing in the medium term. Maybe the price of rubber comes into play ...

Edited December 25, 2013 by CheshireTom

[Greg_B 306]

Yes, Greg, I'm aware of all these things. What I don't understand is the exact correlation between the market price of rice in Udon Thani and how many Baht I get to the UKP. I would guess that borrowing a couple of trillion to build a railway isn't, on the face of it, a very good idea either, but lots of financial commentators seem to think otherwise. I don't really understand the 'why' bit.

 

What I did witness was an ice-skating rink in Hat Yai that charges 250 Baht an hour absolutely packed out and long queues outside ... I wonder where they get the money for that - that's before observing that the busiest shops always seem to be those selling smartphones - to folk that otherwise plead poverty. I don't 'get' the algorithms involved, but my gut instinct says too much easy credit isn't really a good thing in the medium term. Maybe the price of rubber comes into play ...

Banks do seem to be very liberal when it comes to a personal loan for a Thai

 

Also, I can't figure out why any financial market reacts to most any news worldwide

Edited December 25, 2013 by Greg_B

[js007 795]

I'd like to see a stronger US dollar vs. all currencies. The Fed is working overtime to trash the dollar, but maybe they don't have as much power as they think they do?

 

Wasn't the last Thai financial crisis the result of a credit bubble?

 

Ever see all the credit card billboards in Bangkok? It's almost criminal, what the banks do. People making 10,000 baht a month don't need to be paying usurious interest rates to Citibank.

[teelack 9,646]

As with all else currency rates are similar to fashion and will continue to fluctuate. Whilst the OP mentions the $US, the world is in fact a small village as far as currency goes. Ask any Australian about this. Earlier this year there were more baht for the $A than the $US and now despite the non stop printing of American dollars the $US is worth about 14/15% more that the Aussie. Then again, the rate that I got earlier this week for baht for my New Zealand dollars was the best for possibly 8 years.

Like many others I tend to go looking for the best rate of exchange when in Pattaya however common sense tells me its all a fools errand.Two of my major costs are paid from outside the country, namely accommodation and air-fares. I also buy baht or $US if the rate is right before I get there and the bottom line is that however much the currency fluctuates it will cost me or save me a few hundred baht a trip and is chicken feed compared to a single bar fine!

[nkped 1,208]

I'd like to see a stronger US dollar vs. all currencies. The Fed is working overtime to trash the dollar, but maybe they don't have as much power as they think they do?

 

 

But then it's harder to sell U.S. goods overseas and all those electronics made in China and elsewhere are cheaper for us to buy and the trade deficit gets bigger. There are no easy answers.

[js007 795]

But then it's harder to sell U.S. goods overseas and all those electronics made in China and elsewhere are cheaper for us to buy and the trade deficit gets bigger. There are no easy answers.

 

Yea, well I don't sell US goods overseas, and I see no problem with being able to buy cheaper imports. Trade deficits probably don't matter. They have to do something with all those dollars.

[Greg_B 306]

The Al Jazeera link interested me, as I might be in the market for a near new vehicle soon.

But it said.....

10 percent of the people on the scheme are defaulting on loans and selling their cars.

 

I thought that those who had bought under the rebate scheme were not allowed to sell their vehicles for a period.

Or are they free to do so once the rebate was received?

 

Anyhow, I also feel the baht will fall a little more and will wait until the New Year to send over a chunk of beer tokens.

I do have a little concern over US$ strength though, with the upcoming appointment of Janet Yellen and listening to Wac too much!

 

 

You are correct, but TIT does apply

 

There are certain conditions that must be met, including that car buyers must be at least 21 years old and hold ownership of the car for at least five years. The vehicle, which must be manufactured in Thailand, cannot be worth more than one million baht and cannot have an engine capacity exceeding 1,500 cc. Cars must be purchased from 16 September 2011 to 31 December 2012 and refunds will be made from 1 October 2013 onwards

 

 

[BigDUSA 71]

Baht continues to fall.