Airbus and Boeing products running behind schedule

[wacmedia 277]

The Boeing 787 Dreamliner is expected to make its first flight in August of 2007

 

http://www.dailyfinance.com/2009/08/19/wil...ther-two-years/

 

 

Will Boeing delay the 787 Dreamliner another two years?

 

Peter Cohan

Aug 19th 2009 at 4:45PM

 

My recent post about Boeing's (BA) leak that it had shut down Alenia, one of its suppliers in Naples, Italy, encouraged several people close to the company to contact me. One of these people, who requested to remain anonymous, told me he spent two years working as a consultant with the 787 program across several of Boeing's systems and manufacturing organizations.

 

 

While I have only exchanged emails with him and spoken to him once, his concerns about the 787 program seem plausible. And he estimates that the 787's problems could take at least another two years to solve.

 

How so? My source told me that there are significant problems with a number of systems for the 787 -- news of which has so far not reached the public. The delays to date have been blamed on a variety of ills -- including suppliers not meeting deadlines, an insufficient number of fasteners, a machinist strike, problems with the 787's wing assembly -- which is causing problems where the wing attaches to the fuselage and most recently, fuselage skin wrinkling.

 

But I was stunned by his claim that several of the systems -- which are being made by Hamilton Sundstrand (HS) -- a United Technologies (UTX) subsidiary -- are not working. He identified the the 787's Environmental Control System (ECS), which is intended to pressurize the aircraft, as a particular problem. He says he believes there is not a technological solution to the problem.

 

When I asked Boeing for comment, a spokesperson said, "The 787's systems are working, including the environmental control system that pressurizes the airplane. We are continuing to improve and mature the systems, as is normal for a development program." A Hamilton Sundstrand spokesperson told me that he had no knowledge of such problems.

 

However, my source told me he spoke just yesterday with an engineer employed by a current Boeing partner who confirmed that this problem has not been solved. In addition to the ECS problems, he says that the 787's electrical system has not lived up to expectations and several redesigns are necessary before the aircraft enters into service.

 

I don't know what my source's motivations would be for providing this information, but given all the delays and leaks, I thought it worth reporting.

 

There is a deeper problem with the 787 and that has to do with Boeing's management style. As I wrote in my book, Boeing has a long history of command-and-control leadership -- where top executives tell everyone else what to do. Under its new CEO, Jim McNerney, Boeing had adopted a so-called Transformational Leadership (TL) approach which empowered workers to make decisions, have ownership, and to take responsibility for success and/or failure.

 

TL was behind Boeing's radical decision to outsource 60 percent of the 787 design and manufacturing to its suppliers. In the past, Boeing had given its suppliers very detailed specifications. But with the 787, Boeing let the suppliers do the design and manufacturing. The first manager of the 787, Mike Bair, was a transformational leader.

 

Bair took the blame for the 787's delays and Boeing replaced Bair with Pat Shanahan from Boeing's defense unit. As such, Boeing reverted back to its old command-and-control style of leadership. My source claims that when Boeing spent three days in the spring of 2008 with HS, the supplier of the 787's electrical systems, Boeing issued orders to its supplier about how it wanted HS to fix the problems.

 

Rather than listen to what HS thought would work, Shanahan's team issued orders. And according to my source, HS agreed to what Shanahan wanted even though it did not believed that his ideas or time-line would work.

 

This story, if true, is deeply troubling because it suggests that Boeing could be panicking and reverting back to its old style of working -- but this time without sufficient technical know-how to make the right decisions. If Boeing is suffering from this deeper management problem, delivering the 850 787 Dreamliners that the airlines have ordered is going to be an even bigger nightmare than I had previously thought.

 

Peter Cohan is a management consultant, Babson professor and author of eight books including, You Can't Order Change. Follow him on Twitter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned.

[CheshireTom 1,377]

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- U.K. holiday company TUI Travel on Tuesday announced measures to help it refinance a 900 million pound ($1.4 billion) shareholder loan as it also said it would cancel ten of the 23 orders its has with Boeing Co. for its 787 Dreamliner.

[TheFiend 1,181]

And there are more cancellations to come.......... it really is becoming a Nightmareliner!

[eltib 54]

Quick, does someone have a tally of how many 787s have been cancelled?

[short 215]

Do you really want a 787 or A380 when a cheaper, faster, smaller, and with more more capacity orbital 797 is just around the corner?

[CheshireTom 1,377]

Quick, does someone have a tally of how many 787s have been cancelled?

 

 

So far Boeing has 86 cancellations for the 787 Dreamliner

 

30 September 2009

 

Even as a top Boeing executive has asserted that the troubled Boeing 787 Dreamliner will conduct its first flight by December this year, TUI Travel, Europe's biggest tour operator, announced yesterday that it had arrived at an understanding with the Chicago-headquartered company to cancel10 of 23 firm orders for the aircraft. It said this followed after "...extensive discussions with Boeing."

 

"This optimizes the flexibility around our long-haul capacity," TUI said in a statement, adding that it now expects to take delivery of its first Dreamliner in "early 2012."

 

Manchester-based First Choice Airways, part of TUI's travel division, originally was due to receive its first 787 in February 2009. This was later postponed, with first delivery slotted for March 2011.

 

The TUI Travel cancellations bring the number of axed Dreamliner orders this year to a stunning 86.

[BigDUSA 71]

With all the cancellations Boeing is still well above the break even point

[BigDUSA 71]

Quick, does anyone have a tally on the 380 sales and break even numbers?

[CheshireTom 1,377]

With all the cancellations Boeing is still well above the break even point

 

Have you got any figures to back up that claim? More informed sources seems to think otherwise .......

 

 

Richard Safran, the former lead aerospace analyst at Goldman Sachs, now is with Buckingham Research and initiated coverage Aug. 12 with an Accumulate rating. He says this about the prospect of a forward loss:

 

Our analysis indicates the 787 is not in a forward loss position. That estimate assumes that BA will choose an accounting quantity sufficiently large such that total program revenues will exceed costs; we think that is 850-900 airplanes. BA has disclosed only limited information regarding 787 expenditures to date. The 787 accounts for approximately $8bn of BA’s inventory and we estimate that by first delivery, that will rise another $6.4bn (assumes $800mn per quarter in deferred production costs & tooling).

Edited October 1, 2009 by CheshireTom

[BigDUSA 71]

Have you got any figures to back up that claim? More informed sources seems to think otherwise .......

 

Of course I have numbers to back this up. Do a search your good at that. BTW does your boss know your surfing the internt instead of working? You don't want to get fired. Jobs for guys like you are hard to find.

Edited October 1, 2009 by BigDUSA

[CheshireTom 1,377]

Of course I have numbers to back this up.

 

Of course you do.

[CheshireTom 1,377]

Do a search your good at that.

 

Glad you've noticed.

Edited October 1, 2009 by CheshireTom

[BigDUSA 71]

Glad you've noticed.

 

Your good at taking quotes out of context. I have to say, it's so sweet to be retired and having no boss.

Edited October 1, 2009 by BigDUSA

[short 215]

With respect to BigD (I could care less about Airbus because everytime they have a rough landing the plane goes up in flames) Boeing needs to get off its ass and put some decent planes out. Even the pilgrims had more comfort crossing the Atlantic.

[wacmedia 277]

Boeing needs to get off its ass and put some decent planes out.

 

Hi,

 

Problems now with the 747-8.

 

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/boei..._boeing07.html#

 

747-8 delay causes doubts about Boeing

 

Boeing added $1 billion in escalating costs as it delayed another new airplane program Tuesday, and industry analysts pinned much of the blame on poor management and a thinning of the ranks among the company's vaunted technical experts.

By Dominic Gates

 

Seattle Times aerospace reporter

 

 

 

Boeing added $1 billion in escalating costs as it delayed another new airplane program Tuesday, and industry analysts pinned much of the blame on poor management and a thinning of the ranks among the company's vaunted technical experts.

 

The company unexpectedly announced that the first new 747-8 jumbo jet, slated to fly in November, now won't leave the ground until next year. The postponement contrasts sharply with confident assertions made by the head of the program just six weeks ago, declaring that three of the massive, 250-foot-long jets would be flying by year end.

 

Coupled with the ongoing series of delays for the new mid-size 787 Dreamliner, the latest setback has company observers looking for a pattern.

 

Richard Aboulafia, an aviation analyst with the Teal Group, said the common denominators for the two delayed jet programs are a lack of adequate project-management expertise and a shortage of engineering resources.

 

"There were an awful lot of good people retired after 2000," Aboulafia said. "That, coupled with the decision to outsource major chunks of engineering requirements to suppliers and partners, seems to have resulted in a severe talent shortage and a loss of tribal knowledge."

 

Scott Hamilton, an aviation consultant with Leeham.net, said the blame doesn't rest with Boeing's engineers and mechanics, who eventually have to fix all these problems.

 

"It's a management problem," Hamilton said.

 

With Tuesday's delay, a program that seemed set to boost flagging Boeing morale has now instead delivered another black eye.

 

Boeing will take a $1 billion charge to its third-quarter earnings. About two-thirds of that hit reflects mounting 747-8 production costs and the rest comes from a decision to slow production due to reduced near-term demand for the plane.

 

The company said it now expects the first flight of the 747-8 early next year, one year past its original timetable. Flight tests will follow and first delivery is now expected in the fourth quarter of 2010, pushed out three months from the previous schedule

[eltib 54]

Hi,

 

Problems now with the 747-8.

 

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/boei..._boeing07.html#

 

747-8 delay causes doubts about Boeing

 

Boeing added $1 billion in escalating costs as it delayed another new airplane program Tuesday, and industry analysts pinned much of the blame on poor management and a thinning of the ranks among the company's vaunted technical experts.

By Dominic Gates

 

Seattle Times aerospace reporter

 

 

Guess Im gonna vote against the Board initiatives again next year. I love owning stock Boeing gave me. Lets me get back at them for disolving my job.

[wacmedia 277]

Guess Im gonna vote against the Board initiatives again next year. I love owning stock Boeing gave me. Lets me get back at them for disolving my job.

 

Hi,

 

I think they might have avoided most of the problems if they had retained the work within the company. They choose the more expensive option as its turned out.

[Hub 203]

Your good at taking quotes out of context. I have to say, it's so sweet to be retired and having no boss.

 

and living off your wife and a meager pension (much of it based on a fraudulent disability claim), living in a shoebox in philly, driving around in a low-end hatchback, stayin at the Skyslop, and relying on free buffets for your meals.

 

That sure sounds like the sweet life.

[CheshireTom 1,377]

From the normally reliable, Flightblogger site .....

 

While the installation of the 787 wing fix continues, Boeing engineers have returned to the drawing board to redesign part of the reinforcement, FlightBlogger has learned.

 

As a result, company and industry sources say the 2009 first flight target could be in jeopardy as engineers work to redesign the fix for four remaining wing stringers.

 

Boeing declined to discuss the modifications, saying that the next opportunity for an update will come on October 21st during the company's third quarter earnings call. However, the company did reaffirm that 787 "will fly by the end of the year."

 

Internal schedules, say several program sources, initially targeted October 15th for ZA001's to return to ground operations with a first flight to follow roughly six weeks later, however the aircraft remains in the paint hangar as engineers work to complete the design and installation of the side-of-body reinforcement.

 

I hope the thing flies. We can't have another annual Dreamliner on Schedule to Fly thread .... surely not?.

 

Anyway, nice to see Scally has come up trumps again as Mr. Consistency .......

 

 

 

Edited October 18, 2009 by CheshireTom

[joekicker 53]

Boeing declined to discuss the modifications, saying that the next opportunity for an update will come on October 21st during the company's third quarter earnings call. However, the company did reaffirm that 787 "will fly by the end of the year."

 

That will put it neck-and-neck with the release of Duke Nukem Forever, then.

 

Sorry for the geek reference but I couldn't resist. Translation for non-geeks: Why do they even think anyone believes them? The only possible way to restore ANY credibility is to get into the left seat and fly the thing. Until then, no one will believe you.

 

.

[Al_Davis 28]

O.T. but is there truth the fact that some pilots live off government assistance??? Seems to me, it makes sense to pay a decent wage to the men who are responsible for so many lives.

[BigDUSA 71]

Boeing expects long-delayed 787 to fly by year-end

The Dreamliner, slowed by technical woes, is on track to fly by year-end.

Posted: 10/17/2009 01:00:00 AM MDT

 

 

Boeing Co. expects its long-delayed new 787 Dreamliner to take its first flight by the end of this year, the company reiterated in a statement Friday.

 

The plane maker said it is successfully addressing its latest challenge: to fix a weak joint where the wings of the aircraft meet the body.

 

"The design of the side-of-body solution is on track," said Scott Fancher, general manager of the 787 program. "Installations of the fittings are proceeding well, and we are pleased with the progress we are making on this important effort. We continue to be on track to fly the 787 by the end of the year."

 

Boeing said it would give a more detailed update Wednesday, when the company reports third-quarter earnings.

 

Boeing has taken about 850 orders for the fuel-saving 787, making it the most popular new model in the company's history. But the plane maker has stumbled with new technology on the aircraft, along with a decentralized production strategy, that put the program two years behind schedule and added billions of dollars in expenses.

[spacebass 0]

Quote from Blog:

 

SERIOUSLY, here's what's rather bewildering in my opinion.

 

This "wing box fix" has not even been TESTED yet on the static test airplane.

 

Why are they installing it onto the flight test airplanes when they don't even know for SURE that the thing will even work as promised?

 

Shouldn't they TEST first, and if proven successful, install subsequently on ZA001 and the remainder of the flight test fleet? I realize this approach could incur further delays, but on the other hand (i.e. the worst case scenario) what happens if the "fix" does NOT work as hoped?

 

I for sure hope it DOES, but with so many unknowns, it's another gamble that hopefully will pay off.

Edited October 21, 2009 by spacebass

[BigDUSA 71]

Quote from Blog:

 

SERIOUSLY, here's what's rather bewildering in my opinion.

 

This "wing box fix" has not even been TESTED yet on the static test airplane.

 

Why are they installing it onto the flight test airplanes when they don't even know for SURE that the thing will even work as promised?

 

Shouldn't they TEST first, and if proven successful, install subsequently on ZA001 and the remainder of the flight test fleet? I realize this approach could incur further delays, but on the other hand (i.e. the worst case scenario) what happens if the "fix" does NOT work as hoped?

 

I for sure hope it DOES, but with so many unknowns, it's another gamble that hopefully will pay off.

 

Computer simulations and build the fix to be say three times over the strength requirements. Cross their fingers and hope for the best. I may be remembering this wrong but didn't Airbus do the same thing when they had to redesign the wing on the 380?

[Samsonite 181]

Computer simulations and build the fix to be say three times over the strength requirements. Cross their fingers and hope for the best. I may be remembering this wrong but didn't Airbus do the same thing when they had to redesign the wing on the 380?

Basically, yes.

I've forgotten the name of the test, but the wing has to withstand 150% of the maximum stress it would encounter in flight. The A380 failed that test. A "fix" was installed and they were allowed to put the plane in service without redoing the test.

Boeing has not yet done that same test on the 787. They caught the problem before they got that far into the process and want to be sure it passes the 150% test the first time.

 

http://www.flightglobal.com/blogs/flightblogger/

 

"Boeing to complete 787 wing fix design and validation this week

By Jon Ostrower on October 21, 2009 11:28 AM

 

In its third quarter 2009 earnings call, Boeing CEO Jim McNerney reiterated that his company remains on track for 787 first flight, adding that engineers will complete and validate the detailed design for the side of body modification later this week.

 

Boeing will then move toward completion of the installations of the structural fittings on the side of body. Once complete, ZA001 will go repeat some gauntlet testing and taxi tests before flying.

 

When asked about the schedule and the pace of the design, McNerney replied, "The schedule changes every day, problems come up, we have to deal with them."

 

McNerney added that within those events, the schedule for 787 first flight remains on track for the close of 2009."

Edited October 21, 2009 by Scalawag