Airfare ticket shock

[midlifecrisis 4,030]

I prefer to fly premium economy. I am stunned at the prices being asked to fly to and from Bangkok in December.

 

I have checked EVA, Thai Air, JAL and Delta and the lowest premium economy I found was over $2200 with many airlines charging near or over $2000 for economy.

 

A Vietnamese friend suggests that prices will go down after Labor Day but I am not so sure.

 

I have a room booked so I can wait quite a while before getting my ticket. I have booked tickets before at all times of the year and have travelled overseas in all seasons except Christmas. I am not sure what is going on here. Oil prices are relatively low. The dollar has been fairly stable if not as high an exchange rate as we might like. The only thing I can think of is supply and demand.

 

When I returned to the States in February, EVA premium economy was $1600 and business class was like $4000+ mow it is $2400 and $5000 respectively.

 

What do you guys think the reasons are for this?

 

Do you think the prices will go down or up?

 

Should I wait a bit or is it prudent to book a flight for Christmas 6 months in advance?

[ozijeff 9]

Personally, I'd wait.

[steveo 1]

I'm waiting to book for November. Malaysia have good cheap fare from here at the moment but means stopover in K.L. and Thai, the only direct flight, not budging so far. Facts point to fares to Thailand dropping but Thai logic hard to follow at times.

Must also build in exchange rates - way they have been going would tend to mean more expensive flights for us falangs.

 

[Bazle 1,448]

Being the eternal pessimist, I suspect that if bookings look dismal, prices won't be cut - just the number of flights.

[Samsonite 181]

Prices are cyclical. They start up in mid/late May and are the highest during the summer months, especially July and August. They fall by the third week in September and stay down until just before Thanksgiving. They dip, a little, after Thanksgiving and then go back up for the Christmas Holidays. Prices come back down the first or second business day following New Year's Day. If you are heading towards Asia they will pop up again just before Chinese New Year's Day and then immediately drop back to "normal" the day after, where they will stay until mid/late May.

China Air (Tawian) is currently having a SFO to BKK special: $785.00, if you buy by 15 June. Travel Period: August 23, 2010 through November 18, 2010. That is not including tax. By 'travel period' they usually mean your trip has to start by, in this case, 18 November.

The highest price I've ever seen, for tourist class, was $3,200.00, on Christmas Day a few years ago.

Edited June 11, 2010 by Samsonite

[bigdelta 46]

I prefer to fly premium economy. I am stunned at the prices being asked to fly to and from Bangkok in December.

 

I have checked EVA, Thai Air, JAL and Delta and the lowest premium economy I found was over $2200 with many airlines charging near or over $2000 for economy.

 

A Vietnamese friend suggests that prices will go down after Labor Day but I am not so sure.

 

I have a room booked so I can wait quite a while before getting my ticket. I have booked tickets before at all times of the year and have travelled overseas in all seasons except Christmas. I am not sure what is going on here. Oil prices are relatively low. The dollar has been fairly stable if not as high an exchange rate as we might like. The only thing I can think of is supply and demand.

 

When I returned to the States in February, EVA premium economy was $1600 and business class was like $4000+ mow it is $2400 and $5000 respectively.

 

What do you guys think the reasons are for this?

 

Do you think the prices will go down or up?

 

Should I wait a bit or is it prudent to book a flight for Christmas 6 months in advance?

Prices have and will continue to increase both domestically and int'l.As much as I dislike to reference IATA,even they said so.You will probably find a cheaper deal in the next 6 months.My non-airline friends use kayak for starters and of course the individual a/l sites.Just a few minutes ago,a friend of a friend asked if I had any buddy passes left as she was traveling on short notice to Colombia.She said the fare had increased $150 overnight and it indeed did after checking.FARES ARE ADJUSTED SEVERAL TIMES DAILY,when need, to maximize profit,especially on domestic segments.Every major carrier has a dept who's sole purpose is to maximize revenue for each flt.It's an amazing program to see in person.

Capacity has been removed from the system for years and is gradually being replaced.Why add flts when your loadfactor is at record levels?We are adding a small bit of capacity domestically and also some int'l with new routes this summer.

Probably not what you wanted to hear but those are the facts in a nutshell.

 

PS-as I was typing this,she said the fare had dropped a bit,but not to yesterday's price.

Edited June 11, 2010 by LTGTR

[bigdelta 46]

Prices are cyclical. They start up in mid/late May and are the highest during the summer months, especially July and August. They fall by the third week in September and stay down until just before Thanksgiving. They dip, a little, after Thanksgiving and then go back up for the Christmas Holidays. Prices come back down the first or second business day following New Year's Day. If you are heading towards Asia they will pop up again just before Chinese New Year's Day and then immediately drop back to "normal" the day after, where they will stay until mid/late May.

China Air (Tawian) is currently having a SFO to BKK special: $785.00, if you buy by 15 June. Travel Period: August 23, 2010 through November 18, 2010. That is not including tax. By 'travel period' they usually mean your trip has to start by, in this case, 18 November.

The highest price I've ever seen, for tourist class, was $3,200.00, on Christmas Day a few years ago.

You contradicted yourself.

[midlifecrisis 4,030]

Well, it seems that prices will be high but hopefully not as high as currently and waiting may be the wisest choice.

[Upharsin 0]

Prices are cyclical. They start up in mid/late May and are the highest during the summer months, especially July and August.

Are you sure about this?...peak season around Christmas and New Year always sees prices at astoundingly high levels.

The highest price I've ever seen, for tourist class, was $3,200.00, on Christmas Day a few years ago.

OK, this I can believe...

[peteflys 0]

you may want to try doing an open jaw or flying in to a cheaper city. Example fly from the US to Saigion or Taipei on the outbound then get a one way to BKK and have your return from BKK.

 

I would wait for the fall fares to load but at X-mas expect high fares. I have purchased my ticket for sept and it was about 1300 usd. which I consider high. I have not seen many low fares to BKK which is suprising considering what has gone on.

[MM 6,562]

Using LTGTR's reference to kayak, I did a search for SFO-BKK return, leaving on Nov 17, returning Dec 22 (one of my daughters has 5 weeks vacation), and the lowest fare came up as China Air at $922.

 

Are these valid numbers? Is kayak accurate, or do you have to add in a lot of taxes and such to get the correct fare?

 

Edited in:

After getting the fare list from kayak, I selected a ticket purchase directly from China Airline's site. There was an even lower fare, which, after taxes and surcharges was $863.

 

On the outbound trip, there is a 2:45 layover in TPE, and a total of 17:50 flight time. Why am I using UAL?

 

On the return flight, there 55 minute connection with 17:50 flight time. Great!

 

I just paid $1920 for a BKK-SFO economy roundtrip with only the outbound portion upgradeable.

 

Time to burn those UAL miles and switch carriers.

 

Or is this too good to be true?

 

One more EDIT IN:

Following up on those same dates, UAL has a fare with one stop (NRT) for $981 all in, so it's not so bad.

 

I chose dates just before Thanksgiving and just before Christmas to see if it would make a difference. It apparently does.

[DjMiami 18]

All fares are going up . Too many travelers not enough flights now.

[Upharsin 0]

We've come through a difficult couple of years, but the airlines have as well.

 

They have reduced prices over the last couple of year but it did not bring us all rushing back to fly again...so now they need to change tack and raise their prices in order to recover lost revenues. There are only so much losses that they can take.

 

They know that some people, especially those who are looking to book at short notice, probably need to fly whatever the price so they will try and get as much money out of those people as possible. Simple.

[Samsonite 181]

Using LTGTR's reference to kayak, I did a search for SFO-BKK return, leaving on Nov 17, returning Dec 22 (one of my daughters has 5 weeks vacation), and the lowest fare came up as China Air at $922.

 

Are these valid numbers? Is kayak accurate, or do you have to add in a lot of taxes and such to get the correct fare?....

Those numbers are very good and quite a bit lower than I would have expected for that time of the year.

[Samsonite 181]

You contradicted yourself.

Yes, I was aware of that, but as the "Holiday Season" prices pop up for only a few weeks, the higher prices for the summer travel season climb higher and higher over an approximately 4 month period (mid May to mid September), hence the reasoning for saying they peak during the summer.

Edited June 12, 2010 by Samsonite

[Samsonite 181]

....After getting the fare list from kayak, I selected a ticket purchase directly from China Airline's site. There was an even lower fare, which, after taxes and surcharges was $863.

 

On the outbound trip, there is a 2:45 layover in TPE, and a total of 17:50 flight time. Why am I using UAL?

 

On the return flight, there 55 minute connection with 17:50 flight time. Great!....

China Air has two morning flights out of TPE heading for BKK, but one of them is routed through HKG. The "new" Hong Kong airport is very nice, but it adds a few hours to the journey.

On the return they have two flights, one each, to LAX and SFO, that leave TPE at the same time. They know

who is on the connecting flight from BKK and will hold the those West Coast flights until everyone is aboard.

 

I've heard the United FF program is hard to beat, true?

Edited June 12, 2010 by Samsonite

[midlifecrisis 4,030]

Well, I love premium economy but may need to adjust in order to find a better price and use Kayak and other sites to get a better deal.

[short 215]

China Air has two morning flights out of TPE heading for BKK, but one of them is routed through HKG. The "new" Hong Kong airport is very nice, but it adds a few hours to the journey.

On the return they have two flights, one each, to LAX and SFO, that leave TPE at the same time. They know

who is on the connecting flight from BKK and will hold the those West Coast flights until everyone is aboard.

 

I've heard the United FF program is hard to beat, true?

 

 

I have to give one to AA, their FF program blows all the rest away. For 70k miles you can fly east coast to BKK rt. Try that on United.

[baht_miser 9]

I use China airlines and they are usually one of the cheapest. They always seem to be cutting back on the frequent flyer program though. If you check their calendar for Peak dates to redeem mileage, that is when prices will be higher.

 

You should see lower prices in August, but by Christmas they will probably be higher until after Chinese New Year. You can always keep your eye out for specials and last second deals. I once flew for $450 round trip LAX--BKK in the middle of the SARS scare.

[Samsonite 181]

I have to give one to AA, their FF program blows all the rest away. For 70k miles you can fly east coast to BKK rt. Try that on United.

Who do they code share with to BKK? Japan Airlines?

[RWB 0]

I switched to China Air several years ago, when NWA started raising it prices and charging 5usd a beer on even international flights. While NWA has an outstanding FF program China Air's FF program flat sucks. You will never get a free flt unless you book a bunch at "regular" fare. All that being said, China Air does have nice lounge, good eye candy, usually the cheapest flights, along with good flight times. NWA has the menopause group and lands at midnight. I figure the money I saved over the years earned me at least one "free" flight. China Air's website has always had the best prices, but sometimes you have to call and talk to a rep to get things straight. They had a major error in their flight schedules a couple of years ago that I discovered and it took me about 3 phone calls before I was able to convince a rep. They had 2 completly different schedules for the same flights depending on where you booked your start from. Their "in-house" computer program didn't show it, and I had to convince the rep to go to the public one. I figured I would at least get an upgrade, nope. When I booked my last flight their website wouldn't let me book from Houston because I was buying a one way ticket. I had to call to get it straight, but they were very courteous as always and helpful, after I got them to understand the problem. All in all, I recommend China Air.

[player 1]

I've been using China Airlines for over 10 years and they usually have the cheapest fares and best schedules to BKK from the west coast. As stated, their FF program has become shit this year and you will probably have trouble getting gold status and staying there. UAL is much better in this respect. The nice thing with CAL, is that you can change your return trip without a penalty.

 

Used to be that CAL had high prices in the summer and lowered them in the middle of September until Novemeber, but this year is different. I check CAL's web site regularly and it seems they are offering promotions from the west coast (LA/SF-BKK) going out 3-4 months to fill their planes, you just have to check their site occasionally. They have a nice flight leaving LA at around midnight, but they don't discount that too often. Not sure if they offer an economy plus seat, don't think so.

Edited June 12, 2010 by player

[MM 6,562]

I've heard the United FF program is hard to beat, true?

 

Are you joking?

 

The United FF program, using the "Saver" awards that they advertise are absolutely useless for flights to BKK from the US. I spent a month trying to book a Saver award (65K miles) for an economy seat and could never find a booking that got me there and back on any dates I chose.

 

I don't think booking far in advance helps either, because it seems they only release the seats a few days before the flight. I was sometimes able to get a flight leaving in 1-3 days, but never was able to get a return leaving a week or more after that.

 

In order to use the FF miles, you have to use the STANDARD award level that eats up 130K miles for an economy seat from USA to SEA.

 

I hear there are ways to datamine a saver award by reviewing the load figures, but that's too arcane for me right now.

 

In short, the FF mile program gives you the miles, but makes it near impossible to use them.

 

For example, I just tried to book a one-way flight from SFO-BKK. The first available travel date using FF miles (32.5K) was Nov 22-Nov 26 (odd...isn't that Thanksgiving?).

 

So, if I were willing to wait 5 1/2 months to fly...during a 5 day window, the FF program would be great.

 

I have to give one to AA, their FF program blows all the rest away. For 70k miles you can fly east coast to BKK rt. Try that on United.

 

Well, assuming you can actually get a flight from USA to SEA for 70k miles, that is better than using 65K miles for flights where you cannot find a seat!

[BigDUSA 71]

Are you joking?

 

The United FF program, using the "Saver" awards that they advertise are absolutely useless for flights to BKK from the US. I spent a month trying to book a Saver award (65K miles) for an economy seat and could never find a booking that got me there and back on any dates I chose.

 

I don't think booking far in advance helps either, because it seems they only release the seats a few days before the flight. I was sometimes able to get a flight leaving in 1-3 days, but never was able to get a return leaving a week or more after that.

 

In order to use the FF miles, you have to use the STANDARD award level that eats up 130K miles for an economy seat from USA to SEA.

 

I hear there are ways to datamine a saver award by reviewing the load figures, but that's too arcane for me right now.

 

In short, the FF mile program gives you the miles, but makes it near impossible to use them.

 

For example, I just tried to book a one-way flight from SFO-BKK. The first available travel date using FF miles (32.5K) was Nov 22-Nov 26 (odd...isn't that Thanksgiving?).

 

So, if I were willing to wait 5 1/2 months to fly...during a 5 day window, the FF program would be great.

 

 

 

Well, assuming you can actually get a flight from USA to SEA for 70k miles, that is better than using 65K miles for flights where you cannot find a seat!

 

I'm a Premier Executive level FF with United. I fly at least 50,000 paid miles with UA each year. So far I've had few problems booking flights from PHL-BKK or anywhere else with UA. I book months in advance and I'm flexible with my dates. I also like MM been able to book a short notice trip. BTW I use the super saver option. With UA as a Premier Executive FF, I get double miles, exit row seat and I'm one of the first ones on the plane. Plus I have received free upgrades to business and last but not least I get free admittance to the Red Carpet Club when I fly international. For me UA has worked fine.

Edited June 12, 2010 by BigDUSA

[stevoman 2]

We've come through a difficult couple of years, but the airlines have as well.

 

They have reduced prices over the last couple of year but it did not bring us all rushing back to fly again...so now they need to change tack and raise their prices in order to recover lost revenues. There are only so much losses that they can take.

 

They know that some people, especially those who are looking to book at short notice, probably need to fly whatever the price so they will try and get as much money out of those people as possible. Simple.

 

Not altogether true! Emirates, to name just 1 has increased their bottom line profit this financial year by 500%, yes, 500% and expects double digit growth over the next 5 years! They have also increased their A380 order by 32 Aircraft, making them the largest purchaser (BIGD please note)!

But have they offered reduced prices and fare deals, fuck no they have increased yet again! An excellent Airline to fly with IMO, but hell we certainly are paying a premium to the greedy bastards!