BigusDicus

Generally speaking boxed wine can last longer once opened. Bottled wines do best if consumed within a day or two. Air in half full bottle causes oxidation, etc. Very little air in boxed wine.

Chicken and waffles. They do it different in London !!!

Phone does nice pics. Looking forward to more of your report. Thank you!

https://www.wsj.com/articles/dollar-towers-above-rivals-posing-fresh-threats-to-financial-markets-11566126002?mod=hp_lead_pos6 Dollar Towers Above Rivals, Posing Fresh Threats to Financial Markets A strong dollar can hurt earnings, commodities and developing economies One key driver of the dollar’s gains has been the relative strength of the U.S. economy. PHOTO: PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY EMIL LENDOF/THE WALL STREET JOURNAL; PHOTOS: ISTOCK By Ira Iosebashvili Aug. 18, 2019 7:00 am ET A prolonged dollar rally is pressuring U.S. corporate earnings, hitting commodity prices and threatening to deepen a selloff in emerging markets. The U.S. currency has continued to grind higher this year despite an escalating trade war with China and broadsides from President Trump, who has complained that its strength is constraining growth. Last month, the dollar rose even after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time in a decade, defying expectations that lower rates would reduce the appeal of U.S. assets to yield-seeking investors. U.S. Dollar IndexSource: FactSetAs of Aug. 16, 5:28 p.m. ET Jan. ’18Jan. ’19JulyJuly889092949698100May 30, 2019x98.14 The ICE Dollar Index, which tracks the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, stands near its highest level in more than two years and is up nearly 11% from its 2018 lows. One key driver of the dollar’s gains has been the relative strength of the U.S. economy, which until recently has allowed the Fed to raise rates since 2015 far above the levels of borrowing costs in other developed countries. As recently as last year, investors were betting that growth would accelerate abroad, boosting foreign currencies as central banks outside the U.S. raised rates. That pickup never materialized, and investors now believe the gap in yields is likely to remain in place as central banks ease monetary policy to counter the effects of a global slowdown. Even with last week’s decline in Treasury yields, investors can still expect to collect a far larger payout from U.S. government bonds than from those in any other developed country, including Europe and Japan, where negative yields have proliferated in recent years. “There is nothing exceptional about U.S. growth, but it still looks pretty exceptional compared to other parts of the world,” said Alan Ruskin, chief international strategist at Deutsche Bank. The dollar’s strength has been a double-edged sword, both inside and outside the U.S. Trade-War CasualtiesThe strong dollar has hurt companies derivingmore of their revenues outside the U.S.Average earnings growth, compared withyear-earlier periodSource: FactSetNote: Based on first 20 companies reporting %More than 50% revenues inside U.S.More than 50% revenues outside U.S.2014’15’16’17’18’19-15-10-5051015202530 A stronger dollar is a negative for U.S. exporters because it makes their products less competitive abroad. It is also hurting U.S. multinationals by making it more expensive for them to convert foreign revenues into the U.S. currency—a worrisome trend for investors betting on an earnings rebound in the second half of the year. The earnings of S&P 500 companies with more international exposure fell an average of around 12% in the second quarter compared with a year ago, while those with more domestic revenue rose more than 4%, a FactSet analysis of a selected group of recent earnings reports found. Companies that have cited the dollar as a negative factor this year run the gamut from Levi Strauss & Co. and International Business Machines Corp. to medical-technology companyHologic Inc. MSCI Emerging Markets Currency IndexSource: MSCI 2018’1915751600162516501675170017251750 Emerging-market debt, as of Q1 of each yearSource: Institute of International Finance .trillionOtherEuroU.S.dollar2005’10’15012345678$9 At the same time, the dollar’s strength has made investors more cautious on emerging markets, which have in recent months been hit by fears of slowing global growth stemming from the trade war between China and the U.S. A rising dollar makes it more expensive for developing countries to service their dollar-denominated debt, pressuring those that have borrowed heavily in the U.S. currency. The outstanding dollar-denominated debt of emerging-market companies and governments stood at $6.4 trillion at the end of the first quarter, compared with $2.7 trillion a decade ago, according to the Institute of International Finance. Copper futures priceSource: FactSetNote: Continuous contractAs of Aug. 16, 4:59 p.m. ET .a poundJan. ’18Jan. ’19JulyJuly2.402.602.803.003.20$3.40 Prices for commodities, which have been buffeted by growth fears and the trade-war escalation, have also been hurt by the strengthening dollar. Oil, copper and most other raw materials are denominated in dollars and become more expensive to foreign buyers when the U.S. currency appreciates. But the dollar’s strength has been a boon to countries trying to boost growth because it makes their own currencies cheaper. That has drawn the ire of President Trump and heightened speculation that the Treasury Department may try to weaken the dollar through intervention in currency markets, a tactic that hasn’t been attempted by the U.S. since 2000. Mr. Trump and his economic advisers discussed a proposal to intervene in foreign-currency markets to weaken the dollar but ultimately decided against such an action, officials said last month. SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS What are your thoughts on a strong dollar? What does it mean for the U.S. at large, in this moment? Join the conversation below. Write to Ira Iosebashvili at ira.iosebashvili@wsj.com

While we are on the subject of dogs....

https://www.wsj.com/articles/pound-falls-against-dollar-amid-brexit-fears-11564417029?tesla=y&mod=article_inline Pound Falls Against Dollar Amid Brexit Fears Sterling’s sharp drop precipitated in part by new polls showing gains for Conservative Party, say analysts A stack of British one pound coins sit on an arrangement of U.S. dollar banknotes. The pound’s latest drop added to the currency’s declines since former Prime Minister Theresa May said she would quit two months ago. PHOTO: JASON ALDEN/BLOOMBERG NEWS By Sam Goldfarb and Anna Isaac July 29, 2019 12:17 pm ET Rising fears about a no-deal Brexit pushed the British pound further downward on Monday, reflecting a shift in tone from the U.K. government under new Prime Minister Boris Johnson. In recent trading, the pound was down 1.3% against the dollar at $1.2216, on pace for its lowest close since March 2017. Analysts said the pound’s sharp drop was precipitated in part by new polls that showed gains for the Conservative Party after Mr. Johnson won the race to lead the party last week, replacing former Prime Minister Theresa May. Some investors and political analysts think Mr. Johnson could call an early election before the U.K. is scheduled to withdraw from the European Union on Oct. 31. Such a move could potentially allow Mr. Johnson to build a majority in Parliament that would support his efforts to leave the EU with or without an agreement that would soften the economic blow of a departure. WSJ Dollar IndexSource: Dow Jones Market DataAs of July 29, 1:45 p.m. ET July 16July 19July 24July 2989.5089.7590.0090.2590.5090.7591.0091.25 Though Mr. Johnson has said that he would prefer to reach a deal with the EU, he has also described a previous agreement struck by Mrs. May as unacceptable and signaled that the U.K. must step up preparations for a so-called hard Brexit. "Our base case is that there will be an early election,” said Petr Krpata, chief EMEA FX and IR strategist at ING. “Under this situation, sterling will go below $1.18 against the dollar.” The pound’s latest drop has added to the currency’s declines since Mrs. May said she would quit two months ago, prompting traders to rethink assumptions about Brexit scenarios. Buoyed in part by the dollar’s gains against the pound, the WSJ Dollar Index, which measures the U.S. currency against a basket of 16 others, was recently up 0.2% at 90.96. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note was 2.067%, according to Tradeweb, compared with 2.081% Friday. Yields fall when bond prices rise. Write to Sam Goldfarb at sam.goldfarb@wsj.com

https://www.wsj.com/articles/swiss-central-bank-fires-warning-shot-on-currency-11564406799?mod=hp_lead_pos4 ECONOMY CENTRAL BANKS Swiss Central Bank Fires Warning Shot on Currency Swiss franc strengthens as investors anticipate U.S. and European rate cuts Weekly change in average sight deposits at the Swiss National BankSource: Refinitiv .billion Swiss francs2017’18’19-2-10123456April 21, 2017x3.021 billion Swiss francs By Paul J. Davies July 29, 2019 9:26 am ET The Swiss central bank appears to have taken its most significant steps to weaken the Swiss franc in two years, after looming rate cuts from U.S. and European central banks put upward pressure on the currency. The Swiss National Bank began selling francs into the market last week, a move that was reflected in an uptick in the so-called sight deposits that lenders use to hold reserves at the central bank. The sight deposits, a closely watched indicator of foreign-exchange intervention, grew by 1.7 billion francs ($1.7 billion), which is the largest amount in about two years since summer 2017, according to analysts. “This looks like intervention,” said Thomas Flury, global head of currency strategy at UBS Wealth Management. “It is the highest increase since the French election period in 2017, when they were last intervening.” The Swiss National Bank declined to comment Monday. How many Swiss francs €1 buysSource: Tullett PrebonNote: Value scale is inverted to reflect the strength ofthe franc against the euroAs of July 29, 10:30 a.m. ET July ’17July ’18July ’191.0501.0751.1001.1251.1501.1751.2001.225Jul 14, 2017x1.1051 The Swiss franc hit what many analysts see as a key level last Wednesday, which is 1.10 francs per euro, a level it hasn’t breached since early July 2017. At the end of April, one euro bought 1.14 francs, while in May last year it was 1.20 francs. Looser monetary policy in the U.S. and Europe puts upward pressure on the franc by making Swiss investments relatively more attractive, or less unattractive, by shrinking the difference in interest rates between the Alpine nation and elsewhere. Switzerland’s economy is typically viewed as strong and stable, making it a haven for investors. The European Central Bank didn’t cut interest rates last week, but President Mario Draghi has been preparing the market for rate cuts and more bond buying in his recent speeches. He further emphasized that message in Thursday’s monetary policy statement. The Swiss franc weakened after the ECB’s decision, but remains high compared with the recent past. “Intervention has been a longtime coming, the franc has been rising in recent months,” said David Oxley, senior Europe economist at Capital Economics. Data on Swiss sight deposits is publicly available only up to the middle of last week, so the central bank’s move came before the latest round of rate-signals from the ECB. Mr. Oxley and other analysts said the recent fall in the franc looked more market driven than central bank driven. A market in front of the Swiss National Bank in Zurich. PHOTO: ARND WIEGMANN/REUTERS JPMorgan analysts expect the franc to continue to strengthen, in part because the Swiss central bank wouldn’t want to be seen intervening and thereby attracting the ire of the U.S. “President Trump’s ongoing forays into the FX market will further incline the SNB to sit on its hands and leave [the franc] unrestrained,” they said in a note Friday. However, the central bank could have masked its intervention, but didn’t, according to UBS’s Mr. Flury. “It could have done this via options and then we wouldn’t see it,” he said. “Maybe they wanted to show the market that they are around.” Mr. Flury added that Switzerland could handle some further currency strengthening because on a fair-value basis—calculated using relative purchasing power—the franc is weaker against the euro than it was when the SNB last intervened to weaken the currency. When the ECB does cut rates, Switzerland is likely to follow suit: a further quarter-point cut would take the Swiss policy rate to minus 1%. —Brian Blackstone and Pat Minczeski contributed to this article. Write to Paul J. Davies at paul.davies@wsj.com

I no longer eat toast....

A new documentary by Cameron Crowe about David Crosby: Byrds, Crosby, Stills, Nash (& Young), etc. Have not see it. Couple of our friends have - say it is very good. My first big concert was Led Zeppelin. The second was Crosby, Stills & Nash - Neil Young showed up half way through. Cameron Crowe directed the movie Almost Famous (and a few others) and a Showtime series called Roadies, two of my favorites! https://www.wsj.com/articles/david-crosby-remember-my-name-review-looking-back-on-a-life-intensely-lived-11563480253 ‘David Crosby: Remember My Name’ Review: Looking Back on a Life Intensely Lived The musician offers insights on mortality and music in this probing new documentary produced by Cameron Crowe. 0:00 / 0:43 0:40 Watch a clip from the documentary ‘David Crosby: Remember My Name,’ directed by A.J. Eaton. Photo: Sony Pictures Classics By Joe Morgenstern July 18, 2019 4:04 pm ET Good interviews require good questions. In “David Crosby: Remember My Name,” a fine documentary directed by A.J. Eaton, some excellent questions are posed from behind the camera by the producer, the veteran rock journalist and filmmaker Cameron Crowe. The best one is the simplest: “Do you ever wonder why you are still alive?” MORE FILM REVIEWS Where Art and Reality Intersect July 22, 2019 ‘The Lion King’: Disney’s Circle of Lifelessness July 16, 2019 ‘The Farewell’ Review: Tiptoeing Through a Family Charade July 11, 2019 At this stage of his mortal journey David Crosby is not easily taken aback. During a tumultuous career he has answered countless questions, not only about his music but about his addictions, his rageful behavior, his self-destructive behavior, his prison time and, in recent years, the perilous state of his health. To that most pointed of questions, though, he replies in a chastened whisper: “I don’t know. I have no idea, man.” Yet he does know, as much as anyone can, and the beauty of the film is that by the end of it we know too. What’s for sure is that Mr. Crosby is intensely alive—he was 76 when the interviews were shot, and turns 78 next month—notwithstanding two or three heart attacks (it’s the closest he comes to providing a definitive count), eight stents (the maximum, he says, his heart will accommodate), a well-publicized liver transplant, the ravages of diabetes, and a prognosis that is less than promising. David Crosby (center), jamming with Neil Young (left), Stephen Stills (right) and Tim Drummond (bass) PHOTO:JOEL BERNSTEIN/SONY PICTURES CLASSICS Playing to the camera cannily, he’s a commanding presence, by turns a white-maned lion in a mild California winter and a troubadour Falstaff recounting great stories of the times he has seen and the music he has played, first with the Byrds, then with Crosby, Stills & Nash followed by Crosby, Stills, Nash & Young, and all of the stories salted with references to the songs—“Time is the final currency”—or with such vivid phrases as describing falling for Joni Mitchell as “similar to falling into a cement mixer.” (The latter is offered by way of a compliment. “She’s the best singer-songwriter of all of us,” he adds. “No question. Hands down.”) Lest this sound like hagiography, vivid language is turned against its subject as well. There’s Graham Nash saying “He tore the heart out of CSN and CSNY in the course of a few months.” And Mr. Crosby defers to no one in deploring the damage he has done. “There was boundaries I crossed that you haven’t thought of,” he tells the questioner behind the camera. “I hurt a lot of girls. I hurt a lot of people.” David Crosby and Cameron Crowe PHOTO: SONY PICTURES CLASSICS The heart of the film, though, lies in what remains closest to Mr. Crosby’s heart—not the bum one with the eight stents but the musical one that has been churning out new songs and albums with improbable, unquenchable zest. True to its subject, who has been true to his muse, “David Crosby: Remember My Name” is about music in a revelatory way. When Mr. Crosby looks back on those addictions of the past his eyes narrow to dull slits, but they light up, and his tone grows warm, when he speaks of his willing servitude to his art. “All four of us,” he says, referring to his CSNY colleagues, “are still slaves to the music.” Why he’s still alive is partly the luck of the draw, as it is for all of us. Clearly, though, an essential part, even if he doesn’t cop to it under questioning, is what he has always done and still needs to do with his voice and fingers when his time is running short. Write to Joe Morgenstern at joe.morgenstern@wsj.com Copyright ©2019 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8 Appeared in the July 19, 2019, print edition as 'David Crosby: Looking Back on a Life Intensely Lived.'

Recently watched the 2nd season of Bad Blood. Much more sophisticated writing, production values, etc. Still nothing great but I enjoyed it much more than the 1st season. Watchable!

Most countries that sell product offshore want a weak currency. https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-president-trump-finally-getting-a-weaker-dollar-11562583605 Is President Trump Finally Getting a Weaker Dollar? The U.S. currency has slipped from recent highs, and analysts say it may be in for a steady decline A bank employee in Mexico City making adjustments on a board that displays the exchange rate between the Mexican peso and U.S. dollar.PHOTO: CARLOS JASSO/REUTERS By Ira Iosebashvili July 8, 2019 7:00 am ET President Trump has repeatedly bashed the dollar’s strength in recent years, only for the currency to grind higher. Now, analysts say, the U.S. currency may finally be primed for a decline, albeit a slow and steady one. The WSJ Dollar Index, which measures the U.S. currency against a basket of 16 others, has slipped 1.1% from its recent highs, though it surged Friday following an upbeat jobs report. Those declines have come as net investor bets on a higher dollar have dropped to their lowest levels in a year, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and Scotiabank. Whittled AwayNet futures bets on the dollarSource: Scotiabank, CFTC .billion2014’15’16’17’18’19-30-20-10010203040$50June 7, 2016x$12.32 billion Mr. Trump has said the stronger dollar places the U.S. at a competitive disadvantage to other economies. He has also criticized other countries for allowing their currencies to weaken against the greenback. The currency’s recent declines could accelerate if the Federal Reserve eases monetary policy in the coming months by cutting interest rates, a move the central bank has recently signaled. Rate cuts tend to weaken the dollar by making it less attractive to yield-seeking investors. However, a stronger-than-expected jobs report Friday forced some traders to unwind bets on sharply lower interest rates later this year. The report is increasing the focus on this week’s minutes from the Fed’s most recent meeting and upcoming inflation figures. At the same time, some analysts believe the U.S. may more actively discourage other countries from pushing up the dollar by weakening their own currencies. The Treasury recently enlarged the list of countries it monitors for currency manipulation and changed some of the criteria it uses to evaluate such cases. Under the expanded criteria, the Treasury added five countries to the watch list: Italy, Ireland, Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam. The list already included China, Germany, South Korea and Japan. SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS How have your views on interest rates and the dollar changed recently? Join the conversation below. The expanded list was part of the Treasury’s semiannual currency report, which is used to discourage countries from devaluing their currencies so that exports are cheaper for U.S. markets. The designation can be applied to countries that meet the following criteria: actively intervening in their currency markets; having large trade surpluses with the U.S.; and having large overall current-account surpluses. Analysts at Standard Chartered noted in a recent report that the dollar has weakened during the last three Republican administrations, a move they attribute to the fallout from fiscal easing policies that GOP presidents—including Mr. Trump—have favored. “There does seem to be a case for longer-term dollar decline, and it is just possible that the long-term could be about to start,” said Steven Barrow, the bank’s head of G-10 strategy. “We still stick to our view that the dollar will be lower when Trump leaves office than the day he joined.” Write to Ira Iosebashvili at ira.iosebashvili@wsj.com

Excellent analysis!

I must admit "scarpered" is a new word to me. Then again, I have led a sheltered life....

I stayed at the Merlin 10-12 times over a 2-3 year period. Associated with 20-25 diffident guys, mainly US Navy or contractors. Do not recall any of us ever having to pay a joiner fee. Never booked directly, always handled by someone within the group. Was told we received the "Navy special rate". Memory is it was around $25-27/nt including breakfast. Was a nice hotel, bit frayed at the edges. All were disappointed when they closed. We migrate to Flipper Lodge on Soi 8 for a few years...

I do not recall a joiner fee at the Merlin? Stayed at the Montien next door once for a couple days, joiner fee of 500 baht.

Yes, a low dollar is bad for those who travel/live abroad. But it is good for most American businesses. And that is what is important. Inconvenient for some of us, but good for the country.