Dollar Breaches 32 B

[Trvlr 50]

The U.S. dollar climbed past 32 baht in Wednesday trading. The linked report says this is the lowest in three years. Another report I read says lowest in four years.

Personally I do not remember it being 32 baht for longer, but I do not follow rates all the times. In any case, hope it keeps going...

 

http://www.themalaymailonline.com/money/article/baht-falls-to-three-year-low-on-fed-minutes-growth-concern

[bigmick 840]

Last time it was 32 was June 2009

[baht_miser 9]

When I first went to Thailand it was 45 baht to a dollar. Now we are happy to get 32. What a difference a decade makes.

[BeerBelly 1,026]

Last time it was 32 was June 2009

https://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=Linear&chdeh=1&chfdeh=0&chdet=1377193424295&chddm=1781490&q=CURRENCY:USDTHB&ntsp=0&ei=xk0WUtDxCaz-iQK5SA

 

Looks like it was more recent than 2009.

[RhinoTusk 4,901]

Good timing for me, I have to top up my account next week for the next retirement extension. X was 41 THB/USD when I moved here.

[jacko 8,822]

I am hanging on there for my ancient trigger level of >50 baht/£.

I do believe we are going to make it this time.

[Gabor 296]

Plunge in the baht 'a short-term issue'
Business Desk
The Nation

Economic fundamentals strong, currency may rise again: analysts

BANGKOK: -- Thai economists and financial authorities say the sharp depreciation of the baht is likely to be a short-term phenomenon and foresee stability returning when the economy picks up, as economic fundamentals remain strong.

Commerce Minister Niwattumrong Boonsongpaisan said yesterday that the government would not interfere with the Bank of Thailand's work in stabilising exchange rates.

After a brainstorming session with the prime minister and Finance Minister Kittiratt Na-Ranong, Niwattumrong said the heart of this issue was to ensure stability and alignment with regional currencies. He said it would take a month or two to see if the baht's decline would boost Thai exports and whether the export target of 7-7.5 per cent would be revised.

Two forces are speeding the depreciation of regional currencies: the United States' plan to scale back its asset-buying or quantitative-easing (QE) measure because of improving economic health; and the worse-than-expected economic data within the region. Investors are shifting money back to the US.

The baht passed 32 to the dollar yesterday, a level unseen since September 2010, and economists say it could strengthen if the local economy shows improvement in the second half.

Tak Bunnag, head of Bank of Ayudhya's treasury group, said foreign investors had shifted investment out of Asia for some time. So if the Federal Reserve really acts to taper its QE, the baht should not fall much more, or it could even rise again.

In the year to date, the baht, at 32.12, has weakened by 4.8 per cent against the US dollar. Thailand's current-account deficit in the first half stood at 1.9 per cent.

Tak attributed part of the depreciation to the National Economic and Social Development Board's downward revision in the economic forecast on Monday. GDP figures roughly weigh 30 per cent when foreign investors make a decision, he said. This year's growth estimate for Thai gross domestic product was cut on Monday to 3.8-4.2 per cent after slowing in the second quarter to 2.8 per cent.

Kampol Adireksombat, senior economist at Tisco Securities, said the baht had fallen beyond its fundamentals.

His view was that the Thai economy should improve in the second half. If exports pick up, Thailand could show a balanced current account or even a slight surplus. In a worst-case scenario, a deficit of less than 1 per cent of GDP was anticipated. In these scenarios, it was likely the baht would strengthen against the dollar to around 31.5 later this year.

While urging the Bank of Thailand to restore exchange-rate stability via use of foreign reserves of US$170 billion (Bt5.45 trillion) or so, Kittiratt insisted yesterday that the economy remained strong. Even with slowing growth in the second quarter, investment was on track and would keep unemployment low.

To boost the economy in the second half, aside from pushing for the disbursement of the state budget and 20 measures backed by the Cabinet on August 6, the government would resort to no new measures, said Kittiratt.

"All the measures are not to boost the economy in the short term, but to invest in what we should and what will create long-term value," he said. All state agencies should also lend a hand in boosting consumer and investor confidence.

He said that in the short term, the macroeconomic picture remained satisfactory. The baht's depreciation was not worrying, in light of low inflation, as that would cushion negative impacts on importers.

-- The Nation 2013-08-23

 

 

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/662767-thai-economists-baht-plunge-a-short-term-issue/?utm_source=newsletter-20130823-1026&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=news

[Patna 3,802]

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/662767-thai-economists-baht-plunge-a-short-term-issue/?utm_source=newsletter-20130823-1026&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=news

 

Well, this is what the Thais say about their own currency. Also, all currency predictions are just speculations but I would still prefer a more impartial analysis on this.

[whitney 10]

Once it dropped below 30 baht to the dollar, that was when I started to watch my money a lot closer, and not spending so freely anymore. If it maintains at or above 30 baht to the dollar, I'll still visit Thailand on a regular basis, but have been going to other countries where the dollar goes further.

[js007 795]

The economic headlines always make me laugh. They're talking about a "plunge" in the Thai baht, and yet it's only gone down by a few baht per dollar. Hardly a plunge.

[Trvlr 50]

Once it dropped below 30 baht to the dollar, that was when I started to watch my money a lot closer, and not spending so freely anymore. If it maintains at or above 30 baht to the dollar, I'll still visit Thailand on a regular basis, but have been going to other countries where the dollar goes further.

 

I am really curious about which other countries you go to for what Pattaya has to offer.

And a brief comparison of cost between Pattaya and the others will really be helpful.

We are all looking for greener pastures, from time to time if not on a regular basis...

[captcraig2 120]

The economic headlines always make me laugh. They're talking about a "plunge" in the Thai baht, and yet it's only gone down by a few baht per dollar. Hardly a plunge.

 

That would depend on how much currency is being traded. It could be a major plunge!

[js007 795]

That would depend on how much currency is being traded. It could be a major plunge!

 

If you ask me, a "plunge" would be something on the order of 33%.

 

As for the Thai baht at 32 to the dollar, that's not that much out of line to where it has been trading over the last few years.

I'd like to see 38 or so again, so I could stock up my Thai bank account with baht, but I'm not holding my breath.

[BigusDicus 9,883]

I would guess that the Fed here in the US announcing we are going ease back on our QE is a major part of the equation. Interest rates have bumped up some and will continue to rise. Money people are beginning to pull funds out of third world markets and moving to the US. Third and second world countries - India, China, Brazil and others (including Thailand) are experiencing currency devaluation. Less "cheap funding" for their economies.

 

Chances are the baht will drop further and remain low for some time.

[js007 795]

I would guess that the Fed here in the US announcing we are going ease back on our QE is a major part of the equation. Interest rates have bumped up some and will continue to rise. Money people are beginning to pull funds out of third world markets and moving to the US. Third and second world countries - India, China, Brazil and others (including Thailand) are experiencing currency devaluation. Less "cheap funding" for their economies.

 

Chances are the baht will drop further and remain low for some time.

 

I hope you're right.

[Fornicator 106]

Once it dropped below 30 baht to the dollar, that was when I started to watch my money a lot closer, and not spending so freely anymore. If it maintains at or above 30 baht to the dollar, I'll still visit Thailand on a regular basis, but have been going to other countries where the dollar goes further.

What other countries have been going to that the dollar goes further?

[Hub 203]

What other countries have been going to that the dollar goes further?

DR

 

42.5 baht/dollar, the good ole days

[js007 795]

What other countries have been going to that the dollar goes further?

I haven't checked the exchange rates lately, but Indonesia has been in the news the past few days. Apparently, it's currency is having difficulty. And I think the dollar is up a bit against the Malaysian currency, also.

 

Asia is apparently having some trouble. Maybe some of us from the west will get a better exchange rate for a while.

[MM 6,562]

I've been watching the currency exchange booths and the bank rates in Thailand. I've not seen any over 32/USD.

Where are these numbers coming from?

 

Sent from my GT-I9300 using Tapatalk 4

 

 

[js007 795]

I've been watching the currency exchange booths and the bank rates in Thailand. I've not seen any over 32/USD.

Where are these numbers coming from?

 

Sent from my GT-I9300 using Tapatalk 4

 

Maybe people are just looking at the rates on the exchanges. I just looked at Yahoo and they show a rate over 32 a few days ago. By the time the banks get their cut, maybe it didn't get quite that high.

Edited August 25, 2013 by js007

[Trvlr 50]

The rates I look at are on a popular website owned by Western Union, I think. They are supposed to be "mid-market" rates. Rates at money exchanges and banks available to tourists are not exactly the same. One obvious reason is that these entities set their own rates - some give more, some give less.

But in Pattaya the best rates are pretty close. I observed last time, and places like T & T were only .10 to .20 baht less than what I was seeing on the web. So if the web rate was 32 baht, T & T would give 31.80 to 31.90. Changes in rates are not effected immediately, so there is some lag there. That is one reason why people may not have seen 32 baht in Pattaya, because the rate did not climb much above 32.

The other is time of day. These rates are from New York also, when Thailand is asleep, so they will not be reflected when Pattaya wakes up - only the prevailing rates then will be reflected, whatever they may be.

Also, the rate dropped on Friday, and was stuck at 31.86 for much of the weekend. Let's see what the new week brings.

Edited August 25, 2013 by Trvlr

[MM 6,562]

The buy rate for USD here is probably over 32, but that's the wrong rate to look at. I wonder if WU might be disguising that.

 

Sent from my GT-I9300 using Tapatalk 4

 

 

[bratpack 91]

U are right to do that,reality is far better than reading mis quotes on here

I've been watching the currency exchange booths and the bank rates in Thailand. I've not seen any over 32/USD.
Where are these numbers coming from?

Sent from my GT-I9300 using Tapatalk 4

Edited August 25, 2013 by bratpack

[MM 6,562]

 

U are right to do that,reality is far better than reading mis quotes on here

I've been watching the currency exchange booths and the bank rates in Thailand. I've not seen any over 32/USD.

 

Where are these numbers coming from?

 

 

Sent from my GT-I9300 using Tapatalk 4

I checked xe.com, and the rates were definitely well above 32 at the time the OP was written. It lasted a week or so. I just missed checking that week.

Edited August 26, 2013 by MM
fixed stupid mobile autocorrect

[Fatboyfat 361]

For some reason totally unknown to me , these better rates (in my case ￡ sterling) seem to be more available in UK than as has always traditionally been the case, on the streets in Pattaya. I had an Email notification from a broker that I have used in the past offering in excess of Jacko's "dream" 50 Baht /￡last week; provided ￡1000 or more was exchanged. (Down to 49 now). I have not seen that mythical 50 mentioned for Thai exchanges though!