Pity the Russian Tourists

[MM 6,562]

 

Hi,

 

I like to think I bring a bit of balance and sanity to these threads.

Excellent, I completely disagree with that feeling on your part...but now I feel so much better.

 

From a mobile

[wacmedia 277]

Excellent, I completely disagree with that feeling on your part...but now I feel so much better.

 

From a mobile

 

Hi,

 

Glad I've sorted that out.

[MM 6,562]

 

Hi,

 

Glad I've sorted that out.

As usual you take credit for something you had no hand in.

 

From a mobile

[MeGoDanceNow 4,281]

Please don't ever agree with me again..You'll make me doubt my sanity.

 

 

I agree with you and Wac on this issue.

[MM 6,562]

Nail/coffin. Now I'm really fucked.

 

From a mobile

[Evil Penevil 7,628]

Official Thai tourist stats are out for 2014. Total international tourist arrivals were down by 6.6% from 2013, which isn't a disastrous fall considering the coup, martial law and state of emergency. And tourism bounced back sharply in the fourth quarter, which posted a record-high number of arrivals. The first three quarters of 2014 had been worse than 2013.

Total arrivals from Russia were down 8.17% from a year earlier, which is roughly in line with the overall decline. However, the drop in tourist arrivals from Russia accelerated sharply in the fourth quarter of 2014. In the last three months of the year, Russian arrivals were down over 20%, culminating in a 27.35% slide in December from a year earlier.

Arrivals from China were up sharply in December, with Chinese visitors offsetting he decline from other countries.

Evil

Edited January 23, 2015 by Evil Penevil

[atlas2 4,329]

I think it's the last quarter's figures that are the most relevant to the direction the Russian sector of the tousism economy is heading.

Confirms local impression.....though there are still masses of them.

How this impacts on the condo situation is the next question soon to be answered I think.

[jacko 8,822]

I think it's the last quarter's figures that are the most relevant to the direction the Russian sector of the tousism economy is heading.

Confirms local impression.....though there are still masses of them.

How this impacts on the condo situation is the next question soon to be answered I think.

A wander around the Jomtiem area may be interesting, to see which projects are a hive of activity, or whether some seem to be dragging their heels.

That thought came about as I overheard some guys talking about a big project there which appeared to have stalled for a while, but work had recently resumed.... (not the Waterfront.)

[atlas2 4,329]

They're just finishing work on the sales office for The Rivera....flowers down the central reservation on soi 2 jomtien even mature trees planted.........

Smacks of desperation to me.

[atlas2 4,329]

Just heard from a usually reliable source that The Ocean Pacific construction in Jomtien, a part of the Nova group has been cancelled. Not suspended.

 

……Ended.

 

Investors who have already paid up-front or made deposits will be offered other condos in finished buildings or I suppose their money back.

 

Nova is a reputable company with the resources to do this…….I wonder how many other projects are in trouble but scared to come out and say so.

 

Still taking the money and hoping for better times or ready to do a legal runner…..

 

This could be the tipping point and we'll see a real softening in the over-priced,( when compared to BKK) Pattaya condo market.

Edited January 24, 2015 by atlas2

[skeet 0]

I'm with you, Oddball. Been shirtfronted many a time on footpaths when walking toward Ruskies. And that's just the women!!

[Chang_paarp 253]

Excellent, I completely disagree with that feeling on your part...but now I feel so much better.

 

From a mobile

 

 

 

Hi,

 

Glad I've sorted that out.

 

 

As usual you take credit for something you had no hand in.

 

From a mobile

 

So is this wacmedia person Harris Black? I thought that was his domain.

[MM 6,562]

 

 

 

 

 

So is this wacmedia person Harris Black? I thought that was his domain.

I'd lay money it's not Harris...wac doesn't have any angle except to get people to stop investing in fiat monies...he's a gold bug.

[Roughneck 26]

I'd lay money it's not Harris...wac doesn't have any angle except to get people to stop investing in fiat monies...he's a gold bug.

 

I think he`s a bit of a nut job!

[wacmedia 277]

 

I think he`s a bit of a nut job!

 

Hi,

 

Sometimes, I think I'm the only sane one on here.

[MM 6,562]

 

Hi,

 

Sometimes, I think I'm the only sane one on here.

 

 

Well, of course you would. First sign of insanity is when everyone else is crazy.

[Roughneck 26]

 

Hi,

 

Sometimes, I think I'm the only sane one on here.

 

[Butch 3,456]

Seems the poor Russian economy has even more trouble ahead, Credit rating downgraded to "junk" status.

 

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/russias-credit-rating-cut-junk-065705328.html?vp=1

[Shilo 371]

Seems the poor Russian economy has even more trouble ahead, Credit rating downgraded to "junk" status.

 

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/russias-credit-rating-cut-junk-065705328.html?vp=1

 

The downgrade to junk status is actually a pretty big deal for the Russian exchange rate.

 

Most countries will use their bond markets to keep the currency rates in line. If the currency gets to strong they will lower the interest on bonds to discourage foreign investment and curb the inflows of capital... this makes their currency weaker. Or they will raise interest rates to attract foreign investments into their bond markets to support their currency when it is weak.

 

This is what happened a few months ago when Russia raised the interest rates from 10.5 (already very high) to 17% overnight. The act put a floor on the drop of the ruble at around 50-1 against the Thai baht. And on the street in Pattaya the Russian tourist where lucky if they could get 48-1. Granted still down by half from what they were getting a year ago but at least a floor seemed to be holding at 50.

 

This new downgrade has thrown all of that out the window. When bonds get a junk status it means that the market (not Russia) will apply a higher interest rate. And many of the biggest bond investors (mutual funds) will have to sell their holdings and or will not be able to buy new supply.

 

The result... the 50-1 floor has been broken and now sits at 48-1.

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2015/01/27/remember-russia-its-still-doomed/

[MM 6,562]

This is a good article on the Russian economy...it doesn't look good for them, but Putin is holding fast on his Ukrainian expansionist moves.

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2015/01/27/remember-russia-its-still-doomed/

 

I like this quote...

 

 

The government, for its part, is trying to put a brave face on this bleak economic picture. One Kremlin official went so far as to say that the Russian people are prepared to "eat less" to support Putin. Maybe that's why Putin doesn't allow real elections—because that's not much of a slogan.

[wacmedia 277]

Hi,

 

I'd remind people that Russia has very little debt. The US.......

[JONPAT 222]

Will Sophon get rid of one of those Russian language channels any time soon, I wish.

[Butch 3,456]

Thanks Shilo, I was actually going to ask for the downgrade to be explained in layman's terms, as it went a bit over my head, any idea where it might bottom out?.

[Shilo 371]

Thanks Shilo, I was actually going to ask for the downgrade to be explained in layman's terms, as it went a bit over my head, any idea where it might bottom out?.

 

If you mean do I have a guess on how low the ruble can fall against the baht... well, my guess is as bad as the next guys. But I'll stick with the number I posted on a different thread asking for 2015 predictions.

 

I'm watching for the number 35

 

I think that the US dollar could rise to 35-1, the Russian ruble could fall to 35-1 and both would be in large part because I believe that oil could drop to $35 per barrel.

[jacko 8,822]

 

The downgrade to junk status is actually a pretty big deal for the Russian exchange rate.

 

Most countries will use their bond markets to keep the currency rates in line. If the currency gets to strong they will lower the interest on bonds to discourage foreign investment and curb the inflows of capital... this makes their currency weaker. Or they will raise interest rates to attract foreign investments into their bond markets to support their currency when it is weak.

 

This is what happened a few months ago when Russia raised the interest rates from 10.5 (already very high) to 17% overnight. The act put a floor on the drop of the ruble at around 50-1 against the Thai baht. And on the street in Pattaya the Russian tourist where lucky if they could get 48-1. Granted still down by half from what they were getting a year ago but at least a floor seemed to be holding at 50.

 

This new downgrade has thrown all of that out the window. When bonds get a junk status it means that the market (not Russia) will apply a higher interest rate. And many of the biggest bond investors (mutual funds) will have to sell their holdings and or will not be able to buy new supply.

 

The result... the 50-1 floor has been broken and now sits at 48-1.

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2015/01/27/remember-russia-its-still-doomed/

Todays rate seems to be about 2 roubles/baht. So I guess your numbers above are actually 48 baht/100 roubles?

 

It was parity about a year ago.