The Thai Baht

[Bazle 1,514]

The THB has fallen against the GBP over the last few days (down 1.41% today) and it looks as if it is falling against other major currencies as well.

 

Does anyone have any idea why this is, and have any educated guess as to whether the trend will continue for a while?

[VPI78 11,721]

It seems to be a general confidence matter because the SET is down about 2% as well.

[grs90 49]

Its because I changed some sterling to baht last week. The pound always goes up after that. I think its just another way for God to prove he really, really hates me.

[joekicker 53]

The dollar is higher. Bloomberg:

The dollar was near a one-month high against the currencies of major U.S. trading partners as global stocks fell on concern European countries will struggle to find demand for bonds at auctions this week.

 

The euro fluctuated after touching the lowest level versus the dollar since September on speculation Germany and France will encourage Portugal to seek a bailout package. Norway’s krone and the Swedish krona advanced as economic reports indicated expansion in the Nordic region. Australia’s dollar dropped to a three-week low as floods worsened in Queensland and China’s trade surplus fell short of economists’ forecasts.

 

Its because I changed some sterling to baht last week.

 

Plus that.

 

.

[timbon 6]

Hope it continues, Baht pushing 47 to the £. Hope it will hit 50 by the end of the month

[jacko 8,866]

The THB has fallen against the GBP over the last few days (down 1.41% today) and it looks as if it is falling against other major currencies as well.

 

Does anyone have any idea why this is, and have any educated guess as to whether the trend will continue for a while?

It seems to have been a volatile day on the currency markets...

SCB released 19 updates on their exchange rates (10th)

Fear over Portugal needing a loan hitting Euro, optimism over bond buying in the USA, this is giving confidence in US$, GBP often follows it!

 

(PS. I changed a chunk of sterling into baht too last week... : )

Edited January 10, 2011 by jacko

[jacko 8,866]

Fuck me, did Google let you down again?

I smell a rat, an old rat!

[shyface 19]

at the moment it is 47 baht to the pound hope it goes up a little more, to keep the misses happy

[N3RGT 118]

Its because I changed some sterling to baht last week. The pound always goes up after that. I think its just another way for God to prove he really, really hates me.

 

Just love it ...and I thought it was only me this happened to

[Tengotodo 52]

Just love it ...and I thought it was only me this happened to

 

 

http://www.xe.com/ucc/Universal Currency Converter

[gaijin 146]

Good news. Hope the value for the US dollar continues to climb also.

[Bazle 1,514]

The GBP has had a good week against the THB - rate now 48.42500. Will it hit 50?

[Gus 97]

" Will it hit 50? "

 

It will do if Mervyn King keeps his gob shut.

[jacko 8,866]

" Will it hit 50? "

 

It will do if Mervyn King keeps his gob shut.

Well I agree, he is probably musing his comments as I write!

[Bazle 1,514]

I am hoping to spend 8 weeks in Patts shortly, so have moved some spending money to my Thai account. I was hoping the rate would get to 50 Baht : GBP before I did this but decided not to risk waiting to see if that would happen. I got a rate of 48.38096. Good/bad? Only time will tell.

[Bazle 1,514]

The THB:GBP rate now is 49.5080. It looks like a matter of the Baht falling more than the GBP rising.

 

Surprise, surprise - I transferred at the wrong time!

[CheshireTom 1,377]

The THB:GBP rate now is 49.5080. It looks like a matter of the Baht falling more than the GBP rising.

 

Surprise, surprise - I transferred at the wrong time!

 

With an election to be held before the end of the year, I think it's safe to assume that there will be lots of folk re-assessing the "political risk" to their investments which will impact on the Baht. It'll be an interesting 12 months.

[joekicker 53]

With an election to be held before the end of the year, I think it's safe to assume that there will be lots of folk re-assessing the "political risk" to their investments which will impact on the Baht. It'll be an interesting 12 months.

 

I don't disagree, but this Stock Exchange nonsense is not investment, it's straight crap-shooting gambling. People bring hot money in for the amount of time they can reap a bigger interest rate than at home or in some other free-and-easy place, and then hock it out quickly - cash in, cash out. There's no "investment" aspect, and the political atmosphere and the safety has nothing to do with it. It's not even a casino, because you bring in 100 million dollars you WILL make a profit this week (or conversely you WILL take a loss, but the outcome is 100% certain).

 

The reason I bring this up is that "hot money" is a HUGE influence on daily money rates. A billion dollars arriving in a day (not unusual) puts a huge demand on the finite amount of baht available, and pushes up the value of the baht. (And vice versa when it suddenly heads out, as it did on Monday, say). It affects everyone, but it's not lasting or permanent in any manner. If I were an *actual* investor and had to compete with that completely unloyal and un-tied-down scum for baht to pay my staff and my equipment, I would be re-assessing a bit of course, but it's nothing to do with Thailand per se - it's just another economic risk you have to factor in. Little George Soroses everywhere in Thailand. It's a real pressure. (And other countries have the same problem.)

 

I don't know how you could possibly assess the political risk in Thailand over the next, say, two years. It's not possible. The full range is up for consideration - total sabai-sabai prosperity to wrack and ruin. Talk about a three-handed economist. I think that's why big foreign companies are simply hunkering down with a grin-and-bear-it -- whatever you think MIGHT be good for you, do it and to hell with the street theatre and constant military coup threats or the coming civil war. That means HUGE investments by some who just shrug and say essentially, "well, we have to put an engine-building plant somewhere". Thailand is losing out on very, very few investments these days ALTHOUGH they have a lot more competition and lots of companies are going to Vietnam, Cambodia, etc, that wouldn't have gone before -- not because Thailand is more unattractive but because the neighbours have dolled themselves up.

 

.

[Bazle 1,514]

Dreadful economic data out in the UK today so GBP down against everything. Currently, down 1.14% against the THB.

[rogero 4]

The THB:GBP rate now is 49.5080. It looks like a matter of the Baht falling more than the GBP rising.

 

Surprise, surprise - I transferred at the wrong time!

 

I check daily that exchange rate site someone quoted earlier & try to time my transactions accordingly but today (25th) was only quoting 4 banks figures. (average 49.25B).

 

I topped up my pre-paid credit card (fair-ex) by £1000 & scurried round to KBank (beside tuk.com) to get the good rate while it lasted. Found it in chaos, no exchange rate displayed inside or out and all ATMs out of action ! I went inside and asked one of the usually efficient girls what the rate was. She was quite flustered & said she thought it was 48something!

 

I wonder what had happened with KBank today. Hopefully back to normal tomorrow.

 

cheers rogero

[Big_Brian 179]

" Will it hit 50? "

 

It will do if Mervyn King keeps his gob shut.

He was on TV again tonight.

 

Next stop 40Baht/GBP

[Bush Pig 11]

The THB has fallen against the GBP over the last few days (down 1.41% today) and it looks as if it is falling against other major currencies as well.

 

Does anyone have any idea why this is, and have any educated guess as to whether the trend will continue for a while?

 

The longterm direction of the currencies of the Debt Fuelled Welfare States is down - economics 101