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jacko

Boeing 737-Max. Another one down.

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1 hour ago, Butch said:

737-800 down in Tehran. still under investigation.

Interesting discussion on the professional pilots forum about the crash. Some of the pictures of the wreckage strongly hint at shrapnel hits from a missle strike.

https://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/628650-ukrainian-aircraft-down-iran.html

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1 hour ago, forcebwithu said:

Interesting discussion on the professional pilots forum about the crash. Some of the pictures of the wreckage strongly hint at shrapnel hits from a missle strike.

 

 

Hi,

I think it happened at the same time as the missile strikes on bases. Seems a big coincidence.

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2 hours ago, midlifecrisis said:

Both black boxes have been recovered. Took place during takeoff. Not a "Max". Likely an unfortunate accident. 

And the report is Iran is refusing to hand over the black boxes. 

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Iran shot down a commercial jetliner ?  

2020 is starting off on a bad note for that country.

I'm sure Boeing will still take the blame for not installing automatic chaff/flare systems on all aircraft.....or is that another factory option?

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, forcebwithu said:

And the report is Iran is refusing to hand over the black boxes. 

To America or Boeing...yet. Typically aircraft manufacturers are involved but Boeing is an American company and Iran has a right to not want us involved...yet.

Even our agencies allow manufacturers to be involved but it isn't a requirement. They don't have to.

That area is under watch constantly by our satellites and other intelligence assets. If a missile shot a plane down our satellites most likely would pick it up.

It is far too soon to rush to a conclusion.

 

2 hours ago, texasfarang said:

Iran shot down a commercial jetliner ?  

2020 is starting off on a bad note for that country.

I'm sure Boeing will still take the blame for not installing automatic chaff/flare systems on all aircraft.....or is that another factory option?

There is no proof of that yet. It was a Ukranian airline. No Americans were on board. What would the motive be?

If it was a missile, since it happened around the same time of attacks by Iran, it could have been a trigger happy mistake.

edit: The Canadians are involved. Reports from them through TV is that it was an overheated engine.

if an engine exploded, that would explain the so called shrapnel appearance

Edited by midlifecrisis

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4 hours ago, midlifecrisis said:

That area is under watch constantly by our satellites and other intelligence assets. If a missile shot a plane down our satellites most likely would pick it up.

Not sure about that. In this case it would be a short range SAM, not the same as the ones that came a long way for the airbases. Also fired from nearby and in the air a very short time. Wrong to speculate, but quite a coincidence!

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42 minutes ago, jacko said:

Not sure about that. In this case it would be a short range SAM, not the same as the ones that came a long way for the airbases. Also fired from nearby and in the air a very short time. Wrong to speculate, but quite a coincidence!

You are  correct. A SAM wouldn't be picked up.

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7 hours ago, midlifecrisis said:

To America or Boeing...yet. Typically aircraft manufacturers are involved but Boeing is an American company and Iran has a right to not want us involved...yet.

Even our agencies allow manufacturers to be involved but it isn't a requirement. They don't have to.

That area is under watch constantly by our satellites and other intelligence assets. If a missile shot a plane down our satellites most likely would pick it up.

It is far too soon to rush to a conclusion.

 

There is no proof of that yet. It was a Ukranian airline. No Americans were on board. What would the motive be?

If it was a missile, since it happened around the same time of attacks by Iran, it could have been a trigger happy mistake.

edit: The Canadians are involved. Reports from them through TV is that it was an overheated engine.

if an engine exploded, that would explain the so called shrapnel appearance

Read a report that not releasing the black boxes to the NTSB and Boeing is due to the US sanctions against Iran. 

As for speculation on the cause, doubt it was an engine exploding as the cowling is designed to contain the pieces to protect the rest of the plane. 

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6 hours ago, forcebwithu said:

Read a report that not releasing the black boxes to the NTSB and Boeing is due to the US sanctions against Iran. 

As for speculation on the cause, doubt it was an engine exploding as the cowling is designed to contain the pieces to protect the rest of the plane. 

Southwest had one where a piece penetrated the fuselage and a woman died as a result.  The stranger report is that it continued flight for a few minutes after the transponder shut down.

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On 1/9/2020 at 6:16 AM, midlifecrisis said:

You are  correct. A SAM wouldn't be picked up.

Plenty of reports this morning that it was an Iranian missile that brought the aircraft down.

Video appears to show the moment a missile hit the Ukrainian passenger plane that crashed in Iran

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/09/tehran-crash-plane-downed-by-iranian-missile-western-officials-believe

 

 

Edited by jacko

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On 1/8/2020 at 11:52 AM, forcebwithu said:

Interesting discussion on the professional pilots forum about the crash. Some of the pictures of the wreckage strongly hint at shrapnel hits from a missle strike.

https://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/628650-ukrainian-aircraft-down-iran.html

 

Hi,

Well done forcebwithu and wac. We called it right. RIP to all the victims.

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14 hours ago, jacko said:

Plenty of reports this morning that it was an Iranian missile that brought the aircraft down.

Video appears to show the moment a missile hit the Ukrainian passenger plane that crashed in Iran

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/09/tehran-crash-plane-downed-by-iranian-missile-western-officials-believe

 

 

Saw the video last night. Quite illimunating. Read USA had issued a warning about flights so why did this airline takeoff?

I also read that satelities did pick up heat signatures from two SAM launches at the time. Apparently the technology is as good as I first thought.

Also this AM some news article about Iran using bulldozers to clean up the crash site.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10711754/iran-plane-crash-bulldozers-debris-shot-down/

 

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On 1/10/2020 at 7:16 AM, jacko said:

Plenty of reports this morning that it was an Iranian missile that brought the aircraft down.

Video appears to show the moment a missile hit the Ukrainian passenger plane that crashed in Iran

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/09/tehran-crash-plane-downed-by-iranian-missile-western-officials-believe

This reminds me of what happened during the 1986 U.S. air strike against terrorist targets in Libya.  The Libyan air defenses included very sophisticated anti-aircraft missiles which had been supplied by the then Soviet Union.  Unfortunately, the Libyan crews didn't fully understand how to operate them.  Some of the crews panicked and fired the missiles straight up in the air.  Those missiles fell on Tripoli and caused damage to civilian areas, including some embassies. 

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, a Russian journalist told me he had interviewed ex-Soviet military guys who had taken part in the training of the Libyan crews.  They said the training had been a farce.  The translators and interpreters  supplied by the Libyan government barely spoke Russian and the one translator from the Soviet union didn't know the relevant terminology in Arabic.  The Libyans who were to undergo the training had been chosen on the basis of their loyalty to Gaddaffi and faith in Islam.  They wore military uniforms but the Russians didn't believe they had undergone previous military training; they certainly weren't professional military.  They also didn't have the right backgrounds to operate an anti-aircraft system; they weren't familiar with computers and some had problems with basic mathematics.

The Russians assigned to do the training reported back to their superiors that the situation was impossible.  They were told to go through the motions as the decision to sell the system to the Libyans had been made at the highest level.

It wouldn't surprise if something similar happened in Iran.  The iranian ant-aircraft crew didn't know how to properly interpret the images on their screens and mistakenly thought the Ukrainian plane was U.S. military.

10 hours ago, midlifecrisis said:

Saw the video last night. Quite illimunating. Read USA had issued a warning about flights so why did this airline takeoff?

I also read that satelities did pick up heat signatures from two SAM launches at the time. Apparently the technology is as good as I first thought.

Also this AM some news article about Iran using bulldozers to clean up the crash site.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10711754/iran-plane-crash-bulldozers-debris-shot-down/

The behavior of the Iranian authorities is a clear indication of guilt.  If the plane had exploded mid-air due to a mechanical problem or bomb inside the aircraft, the Iranians would have immediately turned over the black boxes to foreign experts and allowed them to visit the site to examine the wreckage.

Evil

Edited by Evil Penevil

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50 minutes ago, Evil Penevil said:

This reminds me of what happened during the 1986 U.S. air strike against terrorist targets in Libya.  The Libyan air defenses included very sophisticated anti-aircraft missiles which had been supplied by the then Soviet Union.  Unfortunately, the Libyan crews didn't fully understand how to operate them.  Some of the crews panicked and fired the missiles straight up in the air.  Those missiles fell on Tripoli and caused damage to civilian areas, including some embassies. 

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, a Russian journalist told me he had interviewed ex-Soviet military guys who had taken part in the training of the Libyan crews.  They said the training had been a farce.  The translators and interpreters  supplied by the Libyan government barely spoke Russian and the one translator from the Soviet union didn't know the relevant terminology in Arabic.  The Libyans who were to undergo the training had been chosen on the basis of their loyalty to Gaddaffi and faith in Islam.  They wore military uniforms but the Russians didn't believe they had undergone previous military training; they certainly weren't professional military.  They also didn't have the right backgrounds to operate an anti-aircraft system; they weren't familiar with computers and some had problems with basic mathematics.

The Russians assigned to do the training reported back to their superiors that the situation was impossible.  They were told to go through the motions as the decision to sell the system to the Libyans had been made at the highest level.

It wouldn't surprise if something similar happened in Iran.  The iranian ant-aircraft crew didn't know how to properly interpret the images on their screens and mistakenly thought the Ukrainian plane was U.S. military.

The behavior of the Iranian authorities is a clear indication of guilt.  If the plane had exploded mid-air due to a mechanical problem or bomb inside the aircraft, the Iranians would have immediately turned over the black boxes to foreign experts and allowed them to visit the site to examine the wreckage.

Evil

I have been seeing conflicting things from Iran. Today they were talking about Boeing getting involved. Then I see they are rushing to clearing the crash site.

You have the true believing, ruthless and diabolical leaders of Iran and then you have the bureaucrats. The bureaucrats do the grunt work on instruction but things get delagated down and competency is not prized over loyalty and perhaps piety.

Iran had a military unit of some size on the flight path of Iran's major international airport. And they don't know not to shoot a SAM without orders from high above?

I see a lot of incompetence in all of this which is sad (the airline too). Almost 180 people were on that plane and didn't have to die.

There are different levels when this kind of thing happens.

The Soviets shot down a Korean arliner. The USA shot down from Iran one a few years back. And so on. There are different levels of chain of command responsibility/justification. The motives differ. In this case I think it was most likely a horrible mistake. A mistake that good military training, discipline and communication could have prevented.

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1 hour ago, Evil Penevil said:

The behavior of the Iranian authorities is a clear indication of guilt.

That and the fact they have now taken bulldozers to the crash site to clear it!

Just watched an interview of the Iranian Ambassador to the UK and smells guilty to me!

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32 minutes ago, jacko said:

That and the fact they have now taken bulldozers to the crash site to clear it!

Just watched an interview of the Iranian Ambassador to the UK and smells guilty to me!

Yes but I think it was a horrible mistake and the type of government they are, they have a difficult time dealing with their own incompetence. Image. The Soviets were like than too. Could do no wrong for fear they would lose prestige. Fear of losing control. A precarious position. 

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I’m following these events very closely at the moment. I saw the flight crew and attendants in KBP airport Tuesday night before they took off. Their flight took off 10 mins after I left Kyiv for Chernivtsi.

its now been confirmed that the Iranians shot down the plane. So much for the word “impossible”

I’m now sat back in KBP Kyiv airport waiting for my flight out. I’ve just passed the makeshift shrine to the lost crew of PS 572. It’s the saddest thing you will ever see in any airport around the world.

 

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At least the Iranians have now admitted to unintentionally shooting down the plane.  
 

I do wonder why the plane was even in that airspace at all, given the circumstances.  

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48 minutes ago, js007 said:

At least the Iranians have now admitted to unintentionally shooting down the plane.  
 

I do wonder why the plane was even in that airspace at all, given the circumstances.  

And not the first time during heated conflict that a passenger jet has been shot down. The USA shot down an Iranian airliner in 1988. Iran should have known better.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655

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12 hours ago, midlifecrisis said:

And not the first time during heated conflict that a passenger jet has been shot down. The USA shot down an Iranian airliner in 1988. Iran should have known better.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655

The list of airliner shootdowns is a long one.

2    1930s
2.1    Kweilin Incident
3    1940s
3.1    Kaleva OH-ALL
3.2    The Chungking
3.3    KNILM PK-AFV
3.4    BOAC Flight 777
3.5    AB Aerotransport SE-BAG Gripen
4    1950s
4.1    Cathay Pacific VR-HEU
4.2    El Al Flight 402
5    1960s
5.1    1961 United Nations crash
5.2    1962 Aeroflot Flight 902
6    1970s
6.1    1973 Libyan Arab Airlines Flight 114
6.2    1975 Malév Flight 240
6.3    1978 Korean Air Lines Flight 902
6.4    1978 Air Rhodesia Flight 825
6.5    1979 Air Rhodesia Flight 827
7    1980s
7.1    1980 Itavia Flight 870
7.2    1980 Linhas Aéreas de Angola Yakovlev Yak-40
7.3    1983 Korean Air Lines Flight 007
7.4    1985 Polar 3
7.5    1985 Bakhtar Afghan Airlines Antonov An-26, Afghanistan
7.6    1987 Bakhtar Afghan Airlines Antonov An-26, Afghanistan
7.7    1987 Zimex Aviation Lockheed L-100, Angola
7.8    1987 Air Malawi 7Q-YMB
7.9    1988 Iran Air Flight 655
7.10    1988 T&G Aviation DC-7
8    1990s
8.1    1992 Shooting of Armenian plane by the Azerbaijan military
8.2    1993 Transair Georgian Airline shootdowns
8.3    1994 Rwandan presidential airliner
8.4    1996 shootdown of Brothers to the Rescue aircraft
8.5    1998 Lionair Flight 602
9    2000s
9.1    2001 Peru shootdown
9.2    2001 Siberia Airlines Flight 1812
9.3    2003 Baghdad DHL attempted shootdown incident
9.4    2007 Balad aircraft crash
9.5    2007 Mogadishu TransAVIAexport Airlines Il-76 crash
10    2010s
10.1    2014 Malaysia Airlines Flight 17
11    2020s
11.1    2020 Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752

source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_airliner_shootdown_incidents

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By way of possible explanation, the decision to launch has to be made a fairly low level without much time.  Otherwise, you can end up taking a hit like the USS Stark did when an Iraqi Mirage fired two Exocet missiles which struck the ship on 17 May 1987 killing 37.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Stark_incident

Edited by nkped

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I'm surprised that the SAM didn't have "friend or foe" recognition software built in, plus don't SAM systems have a safety net built in against stuff like this by not targetting passenger airliners because they emit specific squawk?.

My very limited and probably incorrect take on things anyway.

 

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39 minutes ago, Butch said:

I'm surprised that the SAM didn't have "friend or foe" recognition software built in, plus don't SAM systems have a safety net built in against stuff like this by not targetting passenger airliners because they emit specific squawk?.

My very limited and probably incorrect take on things anyway.

 

Interesting. I wasn't sure about that. So who supplied the SAMs? Was it the same country that sold or gave it to Russian backed militias when the passenger jet was shot down over Ukraine a few years ago?

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