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Butch

The next stage of Low Season

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, jacko said:

I'll take the rap over the Glaswegians.

You mean it's your fault?  I think it's the Glaswegians' fault, just mho.... :tits:

Great thread butch. Like the PT of old - everyone whingeing....:ahhgg:

Edited by capdagde

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I think many bars will be laying off staff. I’m not taking on any more staff at the moment and I’ve had girls asking for work all the time. 

I do see the “exchange rate crisis” as an opportunity to try new things, new ideas. I’ve invested in a new tv system and I’m doing more advertising, changed the menu. All little things but dipping my toe in the water. 

I pity those bars who haven’t saved up for the hard tiles and thought that it would always be good, even in low season. Many bars will fold, many not paying salaries already and waiting for the inevitable. 

Whilst im no economist I feel that what goes up, must come down, so the exchange rate will get better and we will slowly get back to a better trade. 

For me, raising prices isn’t an option, although I hear of a Thai run bar near me  starting to charge for customers to play songs on YouTube in the bar and the usual bill padding and 500฿ managers drink. Thais will always do that I’m afraid. 

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5 hours ago, misteregg said:

I think many bars will be laying off staff. I’m not taking on any more staff at the moment and I’ve had girls asking for work all the time. 

I do see the “exchange rate crisis” as an opportunity to try new things, new ideas. I’ve invested in a new tv system and I’m doing more advertising, changed the menu. All little things but dipping my toe in the water. 

I pity those bars who haven’t saved up for the hard tiles and thought that it would always be good, even in low season. Many bars will fold, many not paying salaries already and waiting for the inevitable. 

Whilst im no economist I feel that what goes up, must come down, so the exchange rate will get better and we will slowly get back to a better trade. 

For me, raising prices isn’t an option, although I hear of a Thai run bar near me  starting to charge for customers to play songs on YouTube in the bar and the usual bill padding and 500฿ managers drink. Thais will always do that I’m afraid. 

There is no end in sight it's going to get worse before it gets better and that may not be enough,you had better get the Indian cricket channels on your tv.The Snowbirds will not be on their annual winter migration this winter.Good luck.

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got the cricket on now and we’re very busy :)

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7 minutes ago, misteregg said:

got the cricket on now and we’re very busy 🙂

So that's why there was hardly anyone on Soi 6.😃

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6 hours ago, misteregg said:

I think many bars will be laying off staff. I’m not taking on any more staff at the moment and I’ve had girls asking for work all the time. 

I do see the “exchange rate crisis” as an opportunity to try new things, new ideas. I’ve invested in a new tv system and I’m doing more advertising, changed the menu. All little things but dipping my toe in the water. 

I pity those bars who haven’t saved up for the hard tiles and thought that it would always be good, even in low season. Many bars will fold, many not paying salaries already and waiting for the inevitable. 

Whilst im no economist I feel that what goes up, must come down, so the exchange rate will get better and we will slowly get back to a better trade. 

For me, raising prices isn’t an option, although I hear of a Thai run bar near me  starting to charge for customers to play songs on YouTube in the bar and the usual bill padding and 500฿ managers drink. Thais will always do that I’m afraid. 

Even though it's low season there are more empty rooms in my hotel than in past low seasons. Some of the blokes I've met over the years no longer come to Pattaya for their holidays and a few have said they'll be looking at alternatives in future with the usual mentions of Vietnam and Cambodia. I've actually had one girl voice her concerns about her future employment and Thai girls usually don't think any further forward than that evening.

One of my regular visitor chums who likes a winter break from the UK says he will be going to Tenerife in November simply because of the cost of his trips to the LOS. He is quite happy to go without his customary bit of crumpet this year. It's no fun going on holiday and having to watch your pennies each time you go for a night out or just in a bar for a drink.

They say a lot of Thai GNP does not come from tourism but mainly from exporting rice, chicken, rubber and manufacturing cars but few people can explain why the TB is so strong as these industries have always been prominent. It's not just the GBP that is suffering, all Western currencies are as well.

They are gonna get a shock as fewer falangs arrive and there is no way that the Indians, Chinese and Arabs are going to take up the slack where the girls who work the bars and their families up in the sticks are concerned.

I've been in some bars and it's a mystery how they're getting enough money in to pay their electricity bill let alone their rent and salaries.

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3 hours ago, yogi100 said:

 

They say a lot of Thai GNP does not come from tourism but mainly from exporting rice, chicken, rubber and manufacturing cars but few people can explain why the TB is so strong as these industries have always been prominent. It's not just the GBP that is suffering, all Western currencies are as well.

If the TB is strong, or $/£ is weak, how ever you want to describe it, then it will hurt exports too so it's not just a fall in tourist numbers that will affect the Thai economy in the future. 

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Posted (edited)

The thai baht is strong because there is a lot of foreign inflows into the thai stock exchange. Until that reverses or the thai economy sinks then expect a strong thai baht for the foreseeable future.

Edited by tombon
Spelling edit

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8 hours ago, misteregg said:

got the cricket on now and we’re very busy 🙂

Is that the world cup? I was thinking more of the Indian premier League of cricket.

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20 or 30 years ago, southern Spain had a hugely successful tourist industry.....  the "government " decided they wanted a different type of holidaymaker......... destroyed the holiday industry and now the whole country has been destroyed......

It was the arrogance and mentality of the Spanish government who destroyed Spain and that is the same with the Thai government...... it's not just Pattaya that will fail but the whole country 

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From a personal opinion, there are a few folk to get the memo that a customer needs to be nurtured. Mr Egg and his crew have it right, on the other hand...

I was wandering around Jomtien looking for some company, there were bars with ladies most had no or one customer, it seems that the use by date for bar workers has has blown out from mid 30's ish to, will wear a dress and has a pulse. There are some out there who should really be collecting the pension. 

So, while on my research trip I ended up at a bar with five  ladies and no customers, with several looking OK. I stopped for a drink, It became apparent that one of the ladies was the boss, not entertaining customers, OK down to four with two in over 5/10 range. One was on the phone to the sponsors trying to raise funds to pay room, ignoring the potential donor sitting in front of her. The other possible was on the phone to some family member, and the conversation was not going well from the sound of the conversation, I did not understand what was being said but got the gist of the conversation. So after being ignored by the staff I paid my bin and moved on.

Then they wonder why we don't want to spend our money with them. 

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2 hours ago, pinoydave said:

20 or 30 years ago, southern Spain had a hugely successful tourist industry.....  the "government " decided they wanted a different type of holidaymaker......... destroyed the holiday industry and now the whole country has been destroyed......

It was the arrogance and mentality of the Spanish government who destroyed Spain and that is the same with the Thai government...... it's not just Pattaya that will fail but the whole country 

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/02/01/inenglish/1549014848_149720.html      Never been to Spain but this article seems to indicate that the Spanish tourist industry is booming. Maybe the "different kind of holidaymaker" decision wasn't such a dumb move. As for the country being destroyed could you please elaborate...

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1 minute ago, Alphonse said:

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/02/01/inenglish/1549014848_149720.html      Never been to Spain but this article seems to indicate that the Spanish tourist industry is booming. Maybe the "different kind of holidaymaker" decision wasn't such a dumb move. As for the country being destroyed could you please elaborate...

Yeah I was wondering about that too. I personally haven't been there for ages but I like Spain and had no idea it was in dire straits. I have a few friends who live there, it still sounds OK. Even a few regulars to Pattaya are considering packing it in for Spain, go buy a condo there!

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12 hours ago, pinoydave said:

20 or 30 years ago, southern Spain had a hugely successful tourist industry.....  the "government " decided they wanted a different type of holidaymaker......... destroyed the holiday industry and now the whole country has been destroyed......

Can you expand PD?  If it's permanent low season in Spain, it would be on topic..... it was still there (at the least the north) the last time I drove the 90 minutes to the border - fab naked prozzies (9s and 10s) on the N road between La Jonquera and Figueres.  Even Flo said "phwoar".

Flo and I are planning to spend 10 weeks a year in the south in a couple of years time (mid-Jan to end-Mar).  Can you grade the level of destruction?

Thanks

Andy Cap

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Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, jacko said:

Even a few regulars to Pattaya are considering packing it in for Spain, go buy a condo there!

Not sure what the residence rights are for TCNs from 1st November - third country nationals will include UK citizens from that date.

https://dispatcheseurope.com/no-deal-no-problem-more-eu-countries-guarantee-british-expats-post-brexit-grace-periods/

Buy-in price US$500,000 worth of property

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/21/realestate/visas-residency-passports-property-investment.html

- read the small print though - TF over Butch..... from me at least.

Edited by capdagde

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Please keep the low season going in Pattaya for another 2 months - those of you with influence over such matters.....

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Posted (edited)
On 6/25/2019 at 11:25 AM, teelack said:

The other thing that I think is notable in Thailand at the moment is this. In years past the malls and clubs were full of a great range of European, American and Australasian punters. These have been exchanged for Indian, Korean, Chinese and some Russians. Some have not got the money and others come from places where prices for supermarket and mall products are as cheap or cheaper. This seems to me to be the crux of the problem. Exchanging good tourists (for the economy) for bad. The only place that I see many of them buy anything is the 7/11. I also believe that many of the Indian tourists are using Indian travel brokers in Thailand who arrange super cheap packages. I am also lead to believe that a lot of Chinese money for travel and accommodation never gets to Thailand. It all sounds like a recipe for disaster in what is a crucial part of the Thai economy.

Sent from my Nokia 6.1 using Tapatalk
 

The Indian Rupee is also down in the dumps.....Things are much more expensive for the Indians in Thailand....Especially Indian food.. 

Edited by fforest

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Many thanks to everyone for the very informative and factual discussion about - how shall I say - the decline of Pattaya as a holiday destination for Western - mainly male - holidaymakers.

Why do less and less western Sanuk tourists come to Pattaya during the months of the low season (April - September)?
That is the question of this thread.

In the last 5 years I wrote several articles about the “Goetterdaemmerung” for various international board and two German boards.
For about 6 – 7 – 8 years we are witnesses of the unstoppable swansong, the doom, the Armageddon, the Goetterdaemmerung  of the P4P scene for western Sanuk-Tourists.
Sanuk is no longer affordable and enjoyable for many of us, for many guys of the western world.
Bkk, Pattaya, Phuket etc. is too expensive for western men with normal average income.
The Pattaya barowners have to adjust to a shrinking number of Western Sanuk tourists.
The part of the Sanuk scene aimed at a western male clientele will continue to shrink.
The part of the Sanuk scene for Asian tourists - Japanese, Koreans, solvent Chinese, Indians, Pakistanis and other liquid Asians will grow.
In Pattaya there is a slow but steady and unstoppable structural change under way, Western Sanuk tourists are displaced by Asians. Very slowly but steadily.
Slowly, guys, slowly.

Live from Duesseldorf
Bakwahn

 

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Why do so few western sanuk tourists come in low seasons?
The extended question must be: Why do fewer and fewer western tourists come to Thailand even in high season?

The reasons have all been mentioned:

* The bad exchange rate; strong Baht, weak US-Dollar, Pound, Euro etc.
* The high prices for drinks in the bars
* The extremely expensive prices for Ladydrinks, barfines and for the girls

Let's be honest:
The average Western tourist can hardly afford such prices any more.
For a Pattaya day with beach life on the day, dinner and supper, in the evening barhopping with drinks and ladydrinks, then barfine and a girl for the night you need about 300 US Dollars or 280 Euros. Please round about. The exact height depends on the individual eating and drinking habits of the individual.

Also this discussion - this thread - is carried by a certain sobriety and disappointment.

There have been info- and discussion-boards on the internet like this one for about 25 years now.
The spirit of optimism, the expectant atmosphere and the rosy euphoria of the first 15 years have given way to sobriety and disillusion. In the years 1993-1996 many discussion boards like this one started with lots of energy and optimism. In the last 8 – 5 years or so, a certain “disenchantment of the Siam sanuk-scene” has been gaining ground. The good old cheap times are gone forever and with these vanished times a New Sobriety coupled with a depressed atmosphere rule now. And all boards are not as agile, as lively as before. That affects all boards, both German and international English. Many boards died in the meantime.

Live from Duesseldorf
Bakwahn

 

 

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It would be really interesting to know how many europeans go in the low season. From experience of going in july and August I always found the flights leaving the UK are almost full and the airfare is just as expensive than the airfare for xmas/ny. 

Traditionally july and August is the time most british and europeans go on there holidays. 

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2 hours ago, tombon said:

It would be really interesting to know how many europeans go in the low season. From experience of going in july and August I always found the flights leaving the UK are almost full and the airfare is just as expensive than the airfare for xmas/ny.
Traditionally july and August is the time most british and europeans go on there holidays. 

Yeah, that's a good question.
Many employees traditionally go on holiday in the summer months of June, July and August. Many big companies - e.g. the big car companies in Germany - take company holidays for 4 weeks during this time. Therefore many employees have to plan their own holidays according to their company.
This explains why some holidaymakers spend their holidays in LOS during these months. But it seems to me that this is only a minority.

The majority of German Thailand holidaymakers come in the autumn and winter months, i.e. from October to the end of March.
Then there is cold wet weather in Europe, plus short days and long nights.  In SOA, on the other hand, there is a dry season with a lot of blue sky and sunshine.  
Many sun-hungry and heat-seeking Germans spend their winter holidays in Siam; mostly three, four weeks. Many German pensioners, pensioner couples overwinter in Siam.


Live from Duesseldorf
Bakwahn

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And then there are the particularly clever guys who come to Pattaya especially in low season.

The girls in the bars are in a bad way, they are desperately looking for guests and customers.
Now the guys can negotiate much better, cheaper prices with the girls.
The number of freelancers is big and here you get prices that are clearly below the prices that are demanded and paid in the time of the high season.
That's what guys on German Pattayaboards report again and again.

Live from Duesseldorf
Bakwahn

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To the development of Pattaya.
I refer to contributions from Butch, Jacko, teelack, Yogi100, Bushcraft and some others.
I'll start with the theme "music" in the bars; e.g. mentioned by Yogi100 and Keyman.

Many bar and gogo bar operators have no knowledge and no experience at all in the gastronomic field. They open a bar without any gastronomic concept or idea!
They don't have a clear and sophisticated  business model. They don't have any clue.

In general:
Every beer bar and every Gogo bar needs a well thought-out gastronomic concept, a  sophisticated  business model to be successful.

What kind of guests should come to the bar?
Asians, Japanese and Koreans?
Or a Western audience? Mainly local expats?
Or should come tourists from all over the world to the bar, by chance, casual customers.

This concept also includes the music to be played. For example:
a) do we play hard rock only or
b) tender ballads and mainstream hits and pop or
c) do we play two third international hits and oldies and one third Thai songs (only examples).

The volume is included to such considerations and the DJs have to respect the decision of the management.

What kind of beverages, what beer do we offer? What prices for drinks?
Many other questions must be answered before you invest a lot of money in a bar venture.
The bar can only survive and operate successful when there is a good idea, a gastronomic concept.

There are a few fairly successful Gogos in Pattaya; for example a few Gogos in the Soi 15 WS, What's Up and Saphire or Sky Fall in the WS, Windmill Diamond Plaza to name a few.

I've seen many bars dying. Not enough customers, too few sales, too many costs.

Live from Biergarten Stoffeln - Düsseldorf
Bakwahn

 

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A few reflections on obvious mistakes made by Pattaya's political leadership (mayor and city council) and the Thai tourism industry, for which the Bangkok government is responsible.
I am referring to what some of you have reported.
 
1. bad investments, shopping malls
I agree with you.
Thai investors, businessmen and managers have repeatedly made blatant mistakes in their investments.
There are far too many overpriced shopping malls in Pattaya.
Who should buy there?
Here the mayor and the city council of Pattaya may have promised the potential investors too much; e.g. customers with purchasing power from the western countries and above all the emerging countries of East Asia. But this cannot explain the many blatant bad decisions and bad investments of experienced bankers and managers.


2. Chinese mass tourism
I absolutely agree with what you say about Chinese package tourism. Thailand hardly benefits at all from this form of tourism.
Most of the money stays in the accounts of the Chinese tour operators. The travel operators offers the Chinese customer a complete range during the tour: travel, accommodation, catering, leisure and cultural activities etc. In the evening the Chinese tourists spend hardly any money in bars, restaurants, entertainment venues.
Thailand earns only a few pennies from this Chinese tourism.

Live from Biergarten Stoffeln - Düsseldorf
Bakwahn

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I think the thesis that some of you are advocating here, that politics (the mayor and the city council of Pattaya supported by the government in Bangkok) wants to get rid of sex tourism, is wrong.

It is true - which you regret so much - that fewer and fewer unaccompanied men come from Western countries to Pattaya. I mean those who come because of the Sanuk.
At the same time, the number of Western tourists who come because of the warmth, the sun, the beaches and the tourist attractions - married couples, families, retired couples, etc. - is also falling.
What can be the reason for the decline of western tourists?

You deplore the catastrophic exchange rate of some Western currencies (dollar, pound, euro) against the very strong Baht. That is correct.
The exchange rate is also an expression of a country's economic performance.
Western countries are weakening. Thailand, on the other hand, has experienced an enormous positive economic development in the last 30 years.
You must reflect the positive economic development of this country in the last decades.
Thailand has been changed from a Third World Country into a well emerging nation! The Thai economy has millions of new jobs in the industry and the service sector; well paid for Thai standards; and the economy is growing. So there are more jobs and better paid jobs for millions of Thais.

This also has an impact on the bar scene and nightlife in Pattaya.
Prices exploded, went through the roof; for beer, beverages, barfines, girls.  
Today Pattaya is not a cheap pleasure any more; it changes in a place for “2-weeks-millionaires”. The cheap, affordable sanuk is gone, faded away.
The times where you could draw on unlimited resources are gone forever.

Today you need 280 – 300 Dollar to buy the same as 25 or 15 years ago for about 110 Dollar.

Many of us can't and don't want to afford this pleasure anymore.

Live from Biergarten Stoffeln - Düsseldorf
Bakwahn

 

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